Ascendis Pharma A/S (NASDAQ:ASND) Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

A week ago, Ascendis Pharma A/S (NASDAQ:ASND) came out with a strong set of yearly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenues were better than expected, with €364m in revenue some 13% ahead of forecasts. The company still lost €6.53 per share, although the losses were marginally smaller than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Ascendis Pharma

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ascendis Pharma's 14 analysts is for revenues of €560.2m in 2025. This reflects a major 54% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 48% to €3.27. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €538.7m and losses of €3.43 per share in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for this year.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$201, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Ascendis Pharma, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$290 and the most bearish at US$164 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ascendis Pharma's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 54% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 72% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 21% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Ascendis Pharma's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$201, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Ascendis Pharma going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Ascendis Pharma you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.