Earnings Update: Ardelyx, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARDX) Just Reported Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Ardelyx, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARDX) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.0% to US$8.68 in the past week. The statutory results were not great - while revenues of US$124m were in line with expectations,Ardelyx lost US$0.30 a share in the process. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ardelyx

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Ardelyx are now predicting revenues of US$208.4m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a huge 67% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 80% to US$0.51 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$206.8m and losses of US$0.23 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Ardelyx even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a regrettable increase in per-share losses.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$12.93, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Ardelyx analyst has a price target of US$15.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$11.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Ardelyx's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Ardelyx'shistorical trends, as the 67% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 73% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 17% per year. So although Ardelyx is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Ardelyx. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ardelyx analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Ardelyx .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.