Ardelyx (ARDX): Evaluating Valuation After Upward Guidance Following Strong IBSRELA Sales Growth

Ardelyx (ARDX) recently boosted its 2025 revenue guidance for IBSRELA, responding to year-over-year sales growth of 92% that caught the attention of analysts and investors alike. This uptick follows a strong quarterly report.

See our latest analysis for Ardelyx.

Ardelyx’s raised revenue outlook and recent XPHOZAH data presentation at Kidney Week have helped fuel a 15.5% one-month share price return, building noticeable momentum. Over the past year, total shareholder return stands at 21.3%, and holders who stayed invested for three years have seen a staggering 214% total return. This highlights the company’s long-term growth story.

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With shares at multi-year highs and guidance raised, is Ardelyx still trading below its true value, or has Wall Street already factored in all the good news? Could this be an overlooked buying opportunity, or is the market fully pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 50.5% Undervalued

At $5.81 per share, Ardelyx’s stock is trading far below the widely followed narrative’s updated fair value of $11.73. This has created a wide valuation gap that investors have started to notice.

Expanding markets, better market access, and prescription growth are accelerating adoption of core therapies. This is supporting sustained revenue and margin improvement. International partnerships and new indications diversify revenue streams, mitigate risks, and enhance long-term earnings stability.

Read the complete narrative.

What if the real secret driving this optimistic valuation is a combination of surging revenue, rapidly improving profit margins, and ambitious growth targets? Curious how high Ardelyx could fly on analyst projections alone? Uncover the pivotal numbers in the full narrative and see what’s fueling all the buzz.

Result: Fair Value of $11.73 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, heavy reliance on a narrow product range and uncertainty around Medicare reimbursement could quickly shift Ardelyx’s growth prospects if setbacks occur.

Find out about the key risks to this Ardelyx narrative.

Build Your Own Ardelyx Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive deeper into Ardelyx’s story using your own analysis, you can compile a personalized outlook in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ardelyx research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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