A Fresh Look at Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH) Valuation Following Exclusive China Distribution Deal for BAQSIMI

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH) has finalized a ten-year exclusive distribution agreement with Chengong, which will allow its BAQSIMI nasal powder to reach patients in Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau. The arrangement includes profit-sharing and extensive obligations for regulatory approvals and clinical trials.

See our latest analysis for Amphastar Pharmaceuticals.

Despite this major step expanding global access for BAQSIMI, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals’ share price return over the past year stands at -33.88%, with a steeper one-year total shareholder return of -53.24%. The recent 10.94% gain over the last 90 days suggests some short-term momentum, but with the company’s growth still constrained by limited distribution and some uncertainty around future revenues, investors remain cautious about the long-term trajectory.

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With Amphastar trading at a significant discount to analyst price targets while facing slowing growth, investors are left to wonder whether the current valuation is a compelling entry point or if the market is already pricing in the company's future prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 24.9% Undervalued

With Amphastar Pharmaceuticals closing at $24.04 and the most-followed narrative setting fair value at $32, there is a notable gap between where the market trades and where narrative consensus expects it to be. This creates tension and anticipation for what is driving this valuation.

The expectation that pricing pressure and increased competition, particularly in crucial products like glucagon and epinephrine, will intensify going forward is likely reflected in the stock's valuation. This could put continued downward pressure on both revenue and gross margins in the coming quarters and years.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what underpins this bullish fair value? The narrative hinges on a blend of evolving profit margins and future revenue expansion. A mix of cautious optimism and bold projections is embedded in the model. Discover which single financial lever could make all the difference for Amphastar's outlook. See how the entire calculation stacks up against market expectations.

Result: Fair Value of $32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a successful U.S. manufacturing expansion or the launch of new proprietary products could challenge expectations and lead to improved margins and growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Amphastar Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you’ve got a different perspective or want to shape your own view, you can dig into the data and piece together a narrative of your own in just a few minutes, then Do it your way

A great starting point for your Amphastar Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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