Is Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) A Risky Investment?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Amgen

How Much Debt Does Amgen Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 Amgen had US$36.5b of debt, an increase on US$32.8b, over one year. However, it does have US$7.18b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$29.3b.

How Strong Is Amgen's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Amgen had liabilities of US$12.6b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$44.3b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$7.18b as well as receivables valued at US$5.33b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$44.4b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit isn't so bad because Amgen is worth a massive US$132.3b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Amgen's net debt of 2.2 times EBITDA suggests graceful use of debt. And the fact that its trailing twelve months of EBIT was 7.9 times its interest expenses harmonizes with that theme. We saw Amgen grow its EBIT by 7.5% in the last twelve months. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Amgen's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Amgen generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 96% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

Our View

The good news is that Amgen's demonstrated ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And its interest cover is good too. All these things considered, it appears that Amgen can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Amgen that you should be aware of.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.