How Amgen’s (AMGN) Strong Q2 Results and Buyback Pause Are Shaping Its 2025 Investment Story

• In the past week, Amgen Inc. reported strong second-quarter 2025 results with US$9.18 billion in revenue and US$1.43 billion in net income, alongside an increased full-year guidance and a US$2.38 per share dividend declaration for Q3 2025.
• An interesting development is Amgen's decision not to repurchase additional shares this past quarter, having already completed a very large buyback program totaling over US$60.59 billion since 2011.
• We’ll examine how Amgen’s upbeat quarterly earnings outlook may reshape the company’s investment narrative amid new biosimilar pressures.

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Amgen Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Amgen today, you have to believe in the company’s ability to maintain growth in high-demand treatment areas, outpace biosimilar competition, and launch successful pipeline drugs, even as blockbuster franchises face exclusivity loss. The recent quarterly results and upgraded guidance reflect short-term momentum, but they do not fundamentally change the biggest near-term catalyst, continued volume growth in key drugs, or the most pressing risk from biosimilar-driven price and market share erosion following Prolia and Xgeva’s patent expirations.

Among the most impactful recent announcements is Amgen’s confirmation of increased 2025 revenue and earnings guidance, with full-year revenues now expected between US$35.0 billion and US$36.0 billion and GAAP EPS ranging from US$10.97 to US$12.11. This update underscores management’s confidence in mitigating biosimilar pressure and sustaining sales growth, which directly relates to the core debate around whether pipeline momentum and portfolio strength can offset legacy headwinds.

In contrast, investors should be aware that the real challenge may not be the competition itself, but rather how the scale and timing of biosimilar impacts play out...

Read the full narrative on Amgen (it's free!)

Amgen is projected to reach $37.0 billion in revenue and $8.7 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook is based on analysts' assumptions of 2.7% annual revenue growth and a $2.8 billion increase in earnings from current earnings of $5.9 billion.

Uncover how Amgen's forecasts yield a $313.48 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts see Amgen’s AI-fueled pipeline and expanding biosimilars presence delivering even stronger momentum, with prior forecasts as high as US$42.2 billion in revenue and US$13.5 billion in annual earnings by 2028. These estimates reflect a far more bullish outlook for new product launches and margin improvement than consensus. Your opinion on Amgen’s future can differ widely, so it’s worth considering several perspectives that may evolve as fresh results and risks emerge.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Amgen - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Amgen Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Amgen research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Amgen research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Amgen's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Amgen?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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