Alumis Valuation

Is ALMS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALMS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ALMS's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ALMS's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALMS?

Key metric: As ALMS is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for ALMS. This is calculated by dividing ALMS's market cap by their current book value.
What is ALMS's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio	1.3x
Book	US$348.39m
Market Cap	US$437.43m

ALMS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-0.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does ALMS's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for ALMS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.8x
TBPH Theravance Biopharma	2.6x	71.4%	US$484.4m
SNDL SNDL	0.6x	144.4%	US$483.2m
ZVRA Zevra Therapeutics	6.6x	73.5%	US$458.5m
THRD Third Harmonic Bio	1.6x	-28.4%	US$465.0m
ALMS Alumis	1.3x	-11.8%	US$437.4m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: ALMS is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.3x) compared to the peer average (2.8x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does ALMS's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

25 Companies	Price / Book	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
RLMD Relmada Therapeutics	0.2x	12.5%	US$10.90m
TNFA TNF Pharmaceuticals	0.2x	n/a	US$3.50m
SXTC China SXT Pharmaceuticals	0.1x	n/a	US$1.36m
UPC Universe Pharmaceuticals	0.04x	n/a	US$999.12k

25 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: ALMS is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.3x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (1.6x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALMS's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALMS PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	1.3x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ALMS's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALMS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	US$8.04	US$30.00 +273.1%	15.6%	US$38.00	US$25.00	n/a	5
Dec ’25	US$9.26	US$30.00 +224.0%	15.6%	US$38.00	US$25.00	n/a	5
Nov ’25	US$11.31	US$30.40 +168.8%	11.9%	US$36.00	US$25.00	n/a	5
Oct ’25	US$10.67	US$32.33 +203.0%	8.9%	US$36.00	US$29.00	n/a	3
Sep ’25	US$12.70	US$32.33 +154.6%	8.9%	US$36.00	US$29.00	n/a	3
Aug ’25	US$12.69	US$32.33 +154.8%	8.9%	US$36.00	US$29.00	n/a	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/24 01:50
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alumis Inc. is covered by 6 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Brian Skorney	Baird
Eric Schmidt	Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Yatin Suneja	Guggenheim Securities, LLC