Alumis Inc. Beat Analyst Profit Forecasts, And Analysts Have New Estimates

It's been a pretty great week for Alumis Inc. (NASDAQ:ALMS) shareholders, with its shares surging 10% to US$4.75 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 9.8% to hit US$2.7m. Alumis also reported a statutory profit of US$0.77, which was a nice improvement from the loss that the analysts were predicting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Alumis' eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$25.6m in 2025. This would be a sizeable 27% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 20% to US$2.63 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$22.9m and losses of US$4.36 per share in 2025. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Alumis

Yet despite these upgrades, the analysts cut their price target 7.0% to US$19.00, implicitly signalling that the ongoing losses are likely to weigh negatively on Alumis' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alumis at US$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Alumis' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alumis. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Alumis going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Alumis (including 2 which can't be ignored) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.