Why Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) Is Up After Strong Q3 Earnings and Promising Vafseo Kidney Data

• In the past week, Akebia Therapeutics reported third-quarter 2025 earnings, showing total revenue rising to US$58.77 million from US$37.43 million a year earlier and a net income swing to US$0.54 million compared to a net loss previously.
• This robust financial turnaround was accompanied by new clinical data presented at ASN Kidney Week 2025, indicating Vafseo may offer dialysis patients a significantly reduced risk of death or hospitalization versus standard therapy.
• We’ll explore how this combination of higher revenues and compelling trial data could impact Akebia's investment narrative and growth outlook.

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Akebia Therapeutics Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Akebia Therapeutics today, you need to believe that the company can drive meaningful growth from the expanding adoption of Vafseo for dialysis patients, while successfully managing its heavy reliance on this product. The recent Q3 earnings surge and positive data from ASN Kidney Week may help support Vafseo’s role as a core near-term growth catalyst, though they do not materially reduce ongoing risks tied to slower-than-expected adoption or reimbursement headwinds. The biggest threat remains unexpected generic competition to Auryxia, which could pressure revenues more quickly than anticipated.

Among recent company updates, the November 2025 ASN Kidney Week presentation stands out. Clinical results reinforcing Vafseo’s benefits versus standard treatments directly support the push for broader provider adoption, which underpins much of Akebia’s revenue outlook in the near term. Still, the rate of uptake across larger dialysis networks could yet be challenged by logistical and reimbursement barriers.

However, for those weighing these positives, investors should be aware that sudden shifts from additional generic launches targeting Auryxia could force...

Read the full narrative on Akebia Therapeutics (it's free!)

Akebia Therapeutics' outlook forecasts $356.6 million in revenue and $71.6 million in earnings by 2028. This is based on a projected 20.5% annual revenue growth rate and an earnings increase of $108.1 million from the current level of -$36.5 million.

Uncover how Akebia Therapeutics' forecasts yield a $6.80 fair value, a 268% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nine Simply Wall St Community estimates put Akebia's fair value between US$4.38 and US$22.72, highlighting striking divergence among private investor forecasts. This range exists as wider reimbursement and adoption for Vafseo remain central to Akebia’s financial trajectory, shaping potential outcomes for current and future shareholders.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Akebia Therapeutics - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Build Your Own Akebia Therapeutics Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Akebia Therapeutics research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Akebia Therapeutics research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Akebia Therapeutics' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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