Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRS) After Its Latest Results

There's been a notable change in appetite for Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRS) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 12% to US$8.48. The results look positive overall; while revenues of US$1.9m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 7.4% smaller than expected, with Aclaris Therapeutics losing US$0.42 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aclaris Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the nine analysts covering Aclaris Therapeutics, is for revenues of US$7.57m in 2023. This implies a concerning 76% reduction in Aclaris Therapeutics' revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$1.81 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$8.44m and US$1.80 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also making no real change to the loss per share numbers.

There was no real change to the average price target of US$28.89, suggesting that the revisions to revenue estimates are not expected to have a long-term impact on Aclaris Therapeutics' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aclaris Therapeutics at US$43.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 94% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 43% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Aclaris Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Aclaris Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Aclaris Therapeutics (2 are concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.