ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$242m, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 17%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

Following the latest results, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' 20 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$953.1m in 2024. This would be a satisfactory 7.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 180% to US$0.52. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$954.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.55 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The average price target fell 7.5% to US$25.15, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$39.00 and the most bearish at US$12.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 15% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ACADIA Pharmaceuticals.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.