ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD): Assessing Valuation After Phase 3 Carbetocin Setback and New Legal Scrutiny

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) saw its stock react after disclosing that its Phase 3 COMPASS PWS study for intranasal carbetocin missed both primary and secondary benchmarks. This prompted the company to halt development for this drug.

See our latest analysis for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’ shares recently faced a sharp setback after disappointing clinical trial results, but it’s worth noting that the 1-year total shareholder return still sits at an impressive 44%. While short-term share price momentum has faded, institutional investment shifts and renewed legal scrutiny are now shaping the stock’s risk perception and near-term trajectory.

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With ACADIA’s shares trading at a substantial discount to analyst price targets and recent results revealing both setbacks and resilience, investors face a pivotal question: Is this the start of a bargain opportunity, or has the market already accounted for all future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 28.6% Undervalued

With the most popular narrative setting ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' fair value at $29.32 compared to the last close at $20.94, fresh upside potential is in focus. Market expectations are recalibrating, and the details behind this valuation demand a closer look.

ACADIA's pipeline momentum, with 9 disclosed programs and multiple late-stage clinical readouts expected by 2027, positions the company to significantly diversify its revenue streams. This reduces risk from single-product dependence and provides potential for margin expansion as new products are launched.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the growth blueprint behind this price target? The central narrative expects double-digit top-line expansion and a future profit multiple usually reserved for sector standouts. What financial milestones and bold assumptions does this consensus hinge on? Click through to see which numbers drive this aggressive valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $29.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising R&D costs and ACADIA’s heavy reliance on NUPLAZID could challenge future growth if setbacks or stiff competition emerge.

Find out about the key risks to this ACADIA Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you want to take a different angle or dig deeper into the numbers yourself, it’s easy to craft a personalized view on ACADIA in under three minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your ACADIA Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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