Is John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s (NYSE:JW.A) Recent Stock Performance Influenced By Its Fundamentals In Any Way?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 16, 2022
NYSE:WLY
Source: Shutterstock

John Wiley & Sons (NYSE:JW.A) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 6.2% over the last week. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Particularly, we will be paying attention to John Wiley & Sons' ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

Check out our latest analysis for John Wiley & Sons

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for John Wiley & Sons is:

13% = US$146m ÷ US$1.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to January 2022).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.13 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of John Wiley & Sons' Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

At first glance, John Wiley & Sons seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 14%. For this reason, John Wiley & Sons' five year net income decline of 14% raises the question as to why the decent ROE didn't translate into growth. So, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

So, as a next step, we compared John Wiley & Sons' performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 2.9% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:JW.A Past Earnings Growth March 16th 2022

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if John Wiley & Sons is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is John Wiley & Sons Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

John Wiley & Sons' declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 52% (or a retention ratio of 48%). The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. Our risks dashboard should have the 2 risks we have identified for John Wiley & Sons.

In addition, John Wiley & Sons has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 32% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 20% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we feel that John Wiley & Sons certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which means that investors aren't reaping the benefits of the high rate of return. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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