Weibo (NasdaqGS:WB) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of WB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

WB ($23.82) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($30.9)

WB fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

WB Stock Overview

Weibo Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a social media platform for people to create, distribute, and discover content in the People’s Republic of China.

Rewards

Trading at 22.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 22.71% per year

Risk Analysis

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Weibo Competitors

Bumble

NasdaqGS:BMBL

US$6.5b

IAC/InterActiveCorp

NasdaqGS:IAC

US$7.5b

Autohome

NYSE:ATHM

US$4.4b

Ziff Davis

NasdaqGS:ZD

US$3.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Weibo
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$23.26
52 Week High	US$64.70
52 Week Low	US$18.62
Beta	0.88
1 Month Change	5.73%
3 Month Change	-8.25%
1 Year Change	-55.52%
3 Year Change	-47.06%
5 Year Change	-65.96%
Change since IPO	14.92%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 03

Weibo: Fundamentals Point To Strong Upside

Weibo is a leading social-media company in China operating one of the country’s most successful and popular communication platform. With a >500 million user base and a strong brand, Weibo appears well-positioned to capture a large share of China’s internet/communication market. Looking at Weibo’s valuation, the company’s financials appear highly underappreciated - as Weibo is profitable and the company's balance sheet healthy. I assign a BUY rating to Weibo stock and set a price target of $43.56/share.

Apr 07

Weibo Plays With The Big Boys In Numbers, But Investors Still Worry

Despite impressive financial results last year, China’s Twitter equivalent faces the challenge of better monetizing users in its highly regulated home market. Weibo’s revenue rose above pre-pandemic levels last year, but its profitability lagged due to heavy spending. The company trails Meta in its ability to monetize users, and is very much in the shadow of local rival WeChat in terms of total user numbers.

Shareholder Returns

	WB	US Interactive Media and Services	US Market
7D	7.8%	6.8%	6.6%
1Y	-55.5%	-44.8%	-18.4%

Return vs Industry: WB underperformed the US Interactive Media and Services industry which returned -44.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: WB underperformed the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is WB's price volatile compared to industry and market?
WB volatility
WB Average Weekly Movement	7.3%
Interactive Media and Services Industry Average Movement	11.3%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: WB is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: WB's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2009	6,147	Gaofei Wang	https://weibo.com

Weibo Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a social media platform for people to create, distribute, and discover content in the People’s Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Advertising and Marketing Services; and Value-Added Services. The company offers discovery products to help users discover content on its platform; self-expression products that enable its users to express themselves on its platform; and social products to promote social interaction between users on its platform.

Weibo Fundamentals Summary

How do Weibo's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
WB fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$5.50b
Earnings (TTM)	US$310.98m
Revenue (TTM)	US$2.28b

17.7x

P/E Ratio

2.4x

P/S Ratio

Is WB overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
WB income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$2.28b
Cost of Revenue	US$428.87m
Gross Profit	US$1.85b
Other Expenses	US$1.54b
Earnings	US$310.98m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.31
Gross Margin	81.21%
Net Profit Margin	13.62%
Debt/Equity Ratio	66.6%

How did WB perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is WB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WB?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for WB. This is calculated by dividing WB's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is WB's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$5.50b

WB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.3x
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

WB PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for WB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1267.3x
BMBL Bumble	4835.4x	48.8%	US$6.5b
IAC IAC/InterActiveCorp	207.8x	72.5%	US$7.5b
ATHM Autohome	16.5x	7.5%	US$4.4b
ZD Ziff Davis	9.4x	-2.8%	US$3.6b
WB Weibo	18.1x	22.7%	US$5.6b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the peer average (1301.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Interactive Media and Services Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the US Interactive Media and Services industry average (45.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.7x
Fair PE Ratio	27.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WB ($23.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($30.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: WB is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.8x)

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Future Growth

How is Weibo forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 22 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

22.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: WB's forecast earnings growth (22.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: WB's earnings (22.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: WB's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: WB's revenue (7.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: WB's revenue (7.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: WB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.9%).

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Past Performance

How has Weibo performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

0.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: WB has a large one-off loss of $296.1M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: WB's current net profit margins (13.6%) are lower than last year (17%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: WB's earnings have grown by 0.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: WB's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: WB had negative earnings growth (-0.03%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Interactive Media and Services industry average (-37.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: WB's Return on Equity (7.9%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Weibo's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: WB's short term assets ($4.9B) exceed its short term liabilities ($2.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: WB's short term assets ($4.9B) exceed its long term liabilities ($1.7B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: WB has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: WB's debt to equity ratio has increased from 0.08% to 66.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: WB's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (33.4%).

Interest Coverage: WB earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Weibo current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate WB's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate WB's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if WB's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if WB's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as WB has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Gaofei Wang (42 yo)

8.33yrs

Tenure

Mr. Gaofei Wang is Independent Director at Beijing Xiaoju Science & Technology Co, Ltd. since August 2020. Mr. Wang is Director at Didi Global Inc since June 29, 2021.He has been the Chief Executive Offic...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: WB's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: WB's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3.8%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/27 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31