Shareholders in trivago (NASDAQ:TRVG) have lost 76%, as stock drops 11% this past week
Every investor on earth makes bad calls sometimes. But really bad investments should be rare. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of trivago N.V. (NASDAQ:TRVG) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 89%. That'd be enough to cause even the strongest minds some disquiet. And over the last year the share price fell 63%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 14% in the last three months. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
After losing 11% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
View our latest analysis for trivago
trivago isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last three years, trivago saw its revenue grow by 25% per year, compound. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So why has the share priced crashed 24% per year, in the same time? The share price makes us wonder if there is an issue with profitability. Ultimately, revenue growth doesn't amount to much if the business can't scale well. Unless the balance sheet is strong, the company might have to raise capital.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on trivago's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between trivago's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that trivago's TSR, at -76% is higher than its share price return of -89%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 25% in the last year, trivago shareholders lost 22%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 12% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. Shareholders might want to examine this detailed historical graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
But note: trivago may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if trivago might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.