Earnings Update: trivago N.V. (NASDAQ:TRVG) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

As you might know, trivago N.V. (NASDAQ:TRVG) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Revenues of €101m came in a modest 4.1% below forecasts. Statutory losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share loss of €0.02 coming in a substantial 74% smaller than what the analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for trivago

Following the latest results, trivago's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of €485.1m in 2024. This would be a modest 2.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 94% to €0.16. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €493.8m and losses of €0.13 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$2.73, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values trivago at US$3.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$2.23. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the trivago's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that trivago is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 2.7% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 12% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% per year. So although trivago's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that trivago's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for trivago going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the trivago Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.