TrueCar Valuation

Is TRUE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TRUE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TRUE ($4.14) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($5.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TRUE is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TRUE?

Key metric: As TRUE is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for TRUE. This is calculated by dividing TRUE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is TRUE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.1x
SalesUS$170.68m
Market CapUS$367.83m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does TRUE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for TRUE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.2x
OB Outbrain
0.3x6.6%US$250.7m
2.3xn/aUS$237.9m
EVER EverQuote
1.7x14.6%US$677.0m
ZH Zhihu
0.6x0.9%US$304.1m
TRUE TrueCar
2.1x14.4%US$367.8m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: TRUE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the peer average (1.2x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does TRUE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Interactive Media and Services Industry?

24 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FUBO fuboTV
0.3x12.3%US$474.41m
OB Outbrain
0.3x6.6%US$250.73m
TRVG trivago
0.3x5.7%US$117.49m
AREN Arena Group Holdings
0.3xn/aUS$73.57m
TRUE 2.1xIndustry Avg. 1.3xNo. of Companies24PS01.63.24.86.48+
24 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: TRUE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the US Interactive Media and Services industry average (1.2x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TRUE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TRUE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.1x
Fair PS Ratio1.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: TRUE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TRUE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$4.14
US$4.75
+14.7%
14.6%US$6.00US$4.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$3.86
US$4.23
+9.7%
25.1%US$6.00US$2.85n/a6
Oct ’25US$3.23
US$3.73
+15.5%
19.2%US$5.00US$2.85n/a5
Sep ’25US$3.00
US$3.73
+24.3%
19.2%US$5.00US$2.85n/a5
Aug ’25US$3.42
US$3.83
+11.8%
20.1%US$5.00US$3.00n/a4
Jul ’25US$3.03
US$3.83
+26.2%
20.1%US$5.00US$3.00n/a4
Jun ’25US$2.95
US$3.83
+29.7%
20.1%US$5.00US$3.00n/a4
May ’25US$2.70
US$3.83
+41.9%
20.1%US$5.00US$3.00n/a4
Apr ’25US$3.47
US$4.28
+23.2%
12.9%US$5.00US$3.50n/a4
Mar ’25US$3.54
US$4.28
+20.8%
12.9%US$5.00US$3.50n/a4
Feb ’25US$3.67
US$3.70
+0.8%
29.5%US$5.00US$2.30n/a4
Jan ’25US$3.46
US$3.27
-5.6%
28.1%US$4.50US$2.30n/a3
Dec ’24US$2.81
US$2.93
+4.4%
16.8%US$3.50US$2.30n/a3
Nov ’24US$1.84
US$3.20
+73.9%
19.6%US$4.00US$2.30US$3.864
Oct ’24US$2.07
US$3.20
+54.6%
19.6%US$4.00US$2.30US$3.234
Sep ’24US$2.46
US$3.26
+32.5%
17.6%US$4.00US$2.30US$3.005
Aug ’24US$2.33
US$3.35
+43.8%
13.0%US$4.00US$2.75US$3.425
Jul ’24US$2.26
US$3.44
+52.1%
13.0%US$4.00US$2.75US$3.034
Jun ’24US$2.27
US$3.44
+51.4%
13.0%US$4.00US$2.75US$2.954
May ’24US$2.52
US$3.50
+38.9%
13.4%US$4.00US$2.75US$2.704
Apr ’24US$2.30
US$3.50
+52.2%
13.4%US$4.00US$2.75US$3.474
Mar ’24US$2.31
US$3.50
+51.5%
15.4%US$4.00US$2.75US$3.543
Feb ’24US$3.23
US$3.69
+14.2%
24.1%US$5.00US$2.75US$3.674
Jan ’24US$2.51
US$3.55
+41.4%
23.7%US$5.00US$2.75US$3.465
Dec ’23US$2.80
US$3.55
+26.8%
23.7%US$5.00US$2.75US$2.815
Nov ’23US$1.97
US$3.31
+68.1%
30.8%US$5.00US$2.25US$1.844

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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