Live Sports Streaming and Film Success Could Be a Game Changer for Netflix (NFLX)

• Netflix recently achieved its first-ever No. 1 theatrical release in North America with 'KPop Demon Hunters,' and also secured exclusive streaming rights for the 2026 World Baseball Classic in Japan, marking its significant entry into live sports coverage in that market.
• These developments underscore Netflix’s ongoing efforts to drive growth through innovative original content and diversification into live events, even as it faces heightened competition and regulatory investigations abroad.
• We'll explore how Netflix’s expansion into live sports streaming could reshape its long-term investment narrative and competitive standing.

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Netflix Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Netflix shareholder today, you have to believe in the company's ability to continually innovate and drive member growth through compelling content and new experiences, outpacing rising expenses and fierce streaming competition. While the recent box office success of 'KPop Demon Hunters' and a major sports streaming deal in Japan reinforce Netflix’s strengths in content diversification, these developments do not materially alter the most important near-term catalyst: monetizing global ad-supported growth, nor do they diminish the key risk of escalating content costs outpacing revenue.

Netflix’s upgraded 2025 revenue guidance, now forecasting US$44.8 billion to US$45.2 billion, is especially relevant as it reflects ongoing momentum in membership growth and incremental monetization opportunities. As the company continues to ramp up its investments in live events and exclusive originals, these moves may serve as incremental tailwinds to its current growth targets, even as the overall thesis remains focused on sustaining profitability and market share.

Yet, in contrast to these positive signals, investors should factor in the ongoing regulatory scrutiny in key international markets and...

Read the full narrative on Netflix (it's free!)

Netflix's outlook anticipates $59.4 billion in revenue and $17.7 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on 12.5% annual revenue growth and a $7.5 billion increase in earnings from the current $10.2 billion level.

Uncover how Netflix's forecasts yield a $1350 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

47 members of the Simply Wall St Community see Netflix’s fair value ranging widely from US$652 to US$1,360 per share. While many focus on the momentum from new global content and ad-supported growth, you may want to compare your own outlook with these diverse views before making conclusions about Netflix’s future performance.

Explore 47 other fair value estimates on Netflix - why the stock might be worth 47% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Netflix Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Netflix research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Netflix research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Netflix's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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