Hello Group’s Softer Q3 Results and Outlook Could Be A Game Changer For Hello Group (MOMO)

• In the past quarter, Hello Group Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of CNY 2,650.12 million and net income of CNY 348.89 million, both slightly lower than a year earlier, with earnings per share also declining on a basic and diluted basis.
• For the nine months to September 30 2025, the company’s weaker revenue and net income, combined with fourth-quarter guidance for a further year-over-year revenue decline, highlight continued pressure on its core social and entertainment operations.
• We’ll now examine how Hello Group’s softer earnings and cautious fourth-quarter revenue outlook reshape the existing investment narrative around its expansion plans.

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Hello Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own Hello Group today, you need to believe its core social and entertainment platforms can stabilize while overseas and product innovation efforts gradually offset domestic softness. The latest quarter’s modest revenue decline but sharper profit drop, together with guided fourth quarter revenue contraction, keeps the key short term catalyst squarely on execution in overseas apps and AI-driven upgrades, while reinforcing near term margin pressure as the primary risk rather than fundamentally changing the story.

The most relevant recent development here is management’s fourth quarter 2025 revenue guidance of RMB 2.52 billion to RMB 2.62 billion, implying a small year-on-year decline. For investors watching the overseas expansion and product refresh as potential earnings drivers, this outlook underscores that any benefits are not yet strong enough to lift group revenues, and that the timing and scale of recovery in the core Momo and Tantan franchises remain central to the thesis.

Yet, before leaning on that recovery story, investors should be aware that weakening Momo revenue and higher overseas costs could...

Read the full narrative on Hello Group (it's free!)

Hello Group's narrative projects CN¥11.2 billion revenue and CN¥1.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 2.2% yearly revenue growth and an earnings decrease of about CN¥0.2 billion from CN¥1.4 billion today.

Uncover how Hello Group's forecasts yield a $9.68 fair value, a 46% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community valuations for Hello Group span from US$5.48 to US$9.68 per share, reflecting wide personal views on fair value. Against this backdrop, the recent guidance for another quarter of year on year revenue decline highlights why some shareholders focus closely on the pressure that overseas expansion and softer profits may place on the business over time.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Hello Group - why the stock might be worth 18% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Hello Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Hello Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Hello Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Hello Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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