What MediaCo Holding Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MDIA) 155% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

MediaCo Holding Inc. (NASDAQ:MDIA) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 155% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 142% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

Since its price has surged higher, given around half the companies in the United States' Media industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.9x, you may consider MediaCo Holding as a stock to avoid entirely with its 4.2x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for MediaCo Holding

What Does MediaCo Holding's Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, MediaCo Holding's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for MediaCo Holding, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, MediaCo Holding would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 16% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 15% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 4.7% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that MediaCo Holding is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

The strong share price surge has lead to MediaCo Holding's P/S soaring as well. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that MediaCo Holding currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

Having said that, be aware MediaCo Holding is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com