Gambling.com Group (GAMB): Fresh Valuation Insights After Q3 Growth and Revised Guidance

Gambling.com Group (NasdaqGM:GAMB) just posted its third quarter earnings, showing a year-over-year increase in sales but shifting from a profit to a loss. The company also raised its full-year revenue outlook, despite ongoing challenges.

See our latest analysis for Gambling.com Group.

Despite posting upbeat revenue growth and upping its full-year guidance, Gambling.com Group’s share price return has slumped, falling more than 53% year-to-date. Total shareholder return shows a one-year decline of 33.8%. Momentum has clearly faded in recent months as investors weigh renewed growth against ongoing profitability concerns.

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With shares trading at a sharp discount to analyst price targets and the company forecasting strong revenue growth, investors may wonder whether this recent slump presents a unique entry point or if the stock’s future potential is already reflected in today’s price.

Most Popular Narrative: 51.7% Undervalued

With the narrative's fair value pegged at $14.14 and Gambling.com Group's last close at $6.83, the narrative points to a substantial gap between intrinsic value and the current market price. This sets the scene for a closer look at what could drive such a difference.

The ongoing legalization and liberalization of online gambling and sports betting in North America, such as the Missouri launch in December and future regulatory changes like potential prediction markets approval, continues to expand Gambling.com Group's total addressable market. This offers sustained long-term revenue growth and new partnership opportunities as more states and jurisdictions open up.

Read the complete narrative.

Ever wondered what ambitious projections underpin this bold target? Analysts are betting on a transformation in profit margins and extraordinary future growth, but the details may surprise you. Unlock the full narrative to see what numbers are moving the needle on Gambling.com Group's valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $14.14 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, increasing regulatory scrutiny or a sharp decline in high-margin SEO traffic could quickly challenge the company's positive valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Gambling.com Group narrative.

Another View: What Do Earnings Multiples Say?

Looking at earnings valuation metrics, Gambling.com Group is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.1, which is nearly identical to the US Media industry average of 16.9, but much lower than the peer average of 90.5. The fair ratio stands even higher at 26.3, suggesting there could be further upside if market sentiment moves in its favor. But does being “cheaper” than peers offer a real margin of safety, or does it simply reflect doubts about future growth?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Gambling.com Group Narrative

If you want a deeper dive or have your own perspective on Gambling.com Group, you can quickly shape your take on the story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Gambling.com Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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