A Fresh Look at Criteo (CRTO) Valuation Following Xnurta’s Retail Media API Integration

The latest integration news is catching investors’ attention. Xnurta’s move to integrate Criteo (NasdaqGS:CRTO) Retail Media API brings all campaign controls into one AI-powered platform. This simplifies how advertisers work across Criteo’s network.

See our latest analysis for Criteo.

Criteo’s year has been anything but quiet, with integrations like Xnurta’s following hot on the heels of upbeat quarterly results. Ongoing share buybacks and new executive hires all signal active business development. Despite these moves, the 1-year total shareholder return is still down nearly 40%, and the year-to-date share price return of -45% reflects investor caution. While the company shows pockets of operational strength, momentum has yet to turn the corner. This makes the next few quarters especially pivotal.

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With shares down sharply over the past year and trading at a significant discount to analyst price targets, is the market overlooking Criteo’s next chapter or fairly pricing in its future growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 40% Undervalued

Trading at $21.42, Criteo’s last close sits far below the narrative’s fair value. This reflects a striking gap between market price and expectations. The narrative sets a high bar for future performance and signals that major underlying trends are in play.

The rapid adoption of AI-powered ad targeting and the development of Agentic AI solutions leveraging Criteo's structured commerce data is expected to boost campaign performance and unlock new monetization channels. This supports both revenue growth and potential margin expansion as productized, automated offerings gain scale.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s fueling this compelling price target? Hint: ambitious earnings growth, a transformative shift toward higher operating margins, and analyst assumptions that could surprise even seasoned investors. The narrative’s projections rest on a bold financial transformation. Ready to see the numbers driving Criteo’s story?

Result: Fair Value of $35.92 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, uncertainty around monetizing AI-driven commerce and slower client ramp-up in retail media could quickly challenge even the most optimistic outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Criteo narrative.

Build Your Own Criteo Narrative

If you’re curious to interpret the numbers in your own way or want to dive deeper into the details, you can craft your perspective on Criteo’s prospects in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Criteo research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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