Is AMC Networks (NASDAQ:AMCX) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies AMC Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:AMCX) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for AMC Networks

What Is AMC Networks's Net Debt?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that AMC Networks had US$2.83b in debt in June 2022; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$817.3m, its net debt is less, at about US$2.01b.

How Healthy Is AMC Networks' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that AMC Networks had liabilities of US$1.07b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$3.44b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$817.3m as well as receivables valued at US$914.1m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$2.78b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit casts a shadow over the US$1.21b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, AMC Networks would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

AMC Networks's debt is 3.0 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 5.0 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Shareholders should be aware that AMC Networks's EBIT was down 32% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine AMC Networks's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, AMC Networks's free cash flow amounted to 46% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

To be frank both AMC Networks's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. Having said that, its ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow isn't such a worry. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think AMC Networks has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that AMC Networks is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.