Does AMC Networks (NASDAQ:AMCX) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies AMC Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:AMCX) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for AMC Networks

What Is AMC Networks's Debt?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that AMC Networks had US$2.81b in debt in December 2022; about the same as the year before. However, it does have US$930.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$1.88b.

How Strong Is AMC Networks' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that AMC Networks had liabilities of US$1.17b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$3.36b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$930.0m as well as receivables valued at US$770.8m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$2.83b.

This deficit casts a shadow over the US$797.4m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, AMC Networks would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

AMC Networks's debt is 2.8 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.8 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Unfortunately, AMC Networks's EBIT flopped 14% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine AMC Networks's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, AMC Networks's free cash flow amounted to 48% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Our View

Mulling over AMC Networks's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. Having said that, its ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow isn't such a worry. Overall, it seems to us that AMC Networks's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example AMC Networks has 5 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.