Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited

OTCPK:NDGP.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.9b

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Valuation

Is NDGP.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NDGP.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$0.35
Fair Value
1.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NDGP.F ($0.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($0.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NDGP.F is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NDGP.F?

Key metric: As NDGP.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NDGP.F. This is calculated by dividing NDGP.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NDGP.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.3x
EarningsCN¥750.68m
Market CapCN¥13.74b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NDGP.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NDGP.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.6x
SLVM Sylvamo
11.7x5.7%US$3.2b
CENX Century Aluminum
5.7x-8.3%US$1.7b
MTRN Materion
27.8x26.0%US$2.1b
TROX Tronox Holdings
37.3x93.7%US$1.6b
NDGP.F Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)
18.3x37.9%US$14.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NDGP.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the peer average (20.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NDGP.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Forestry Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NDGP.F 18.3xIndustry Avg. 15.5xNo. of Companies38PE01632486480+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NDGP.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the Global Forestry industry average (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NDGP.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NDGP.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.3x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NDGP.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NDGP.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$0.52
0%
12.3%US$0.64US$0.45n/a10
Feb ’26n/a
US$0.52
0%
12.3%US$0.64US$0.45n/a10
Jan ’26n/a
US$0.54
0%
12.8%US$0.64US$0.46n/a10
Dec ’25US$0.40
US$0.54
+34.6%
11.4%US$0.64US$0.45n/a10
Nov ’25n/a
US$0.56
0%
11.4%US$0.65US$0.46n/a11
Oct ’25US$0.51
US$0.55
+7.8%
11.8%US$0.66US$0.46n/a12
Sep ’25n/a
US$0.56
0%
15.7%US$0.72US$0.45n/a10
Aug ’25US$0.37
US$0.55
+47.5%
14.1%US$0.70US$0.45n/a11
Jul ’25US$0.44
US$0.55
+25.0%
14.1%US$0.70US$0.45n/a11
Jun ’25n/a
US$0.60
0%
17.4%US$0.81US$0.46n/a11
May ’25US$0.42
US$0.55
+32.6%
14.3%US$0.70US$0.45n/a13
Apr ’25US$0.40
US$0.56
+37.8%
13.6%US$0.70US$0.46n/a13
Mar ’25US$0.48
US$0.55
+15.6%
14.1%US$0.70US$0.45n/a13
Feb ’25US$0.41
US$0.55
+33.6%
12.1%US$0.65US$0.45n/a12
Jan ’25US$0.48
US$0.57
+17.4%
16.8%US$0.81US$0.45n/a11
Dec ’24US$0.50
US$0.57
+13.4%
16.8%US$0.81US$0.45US$0.4011
Nov ’24US$0.58
US$0.57
-1.6%
16.7%US$0.80US$0.45n/a11
Oct ’24US$0.53
US$0.58
+8.0%
15.2%US$0.80US$0.50US$0.5111
Sep ’24n/a
US$0.71
0%
21.1%US$1.02US$0.50n/a12
Aug ’24US$0.61
US$0.78
+28.7%
26.8%US$1.21US$0.51US$0.3712
Jul ’24US$0.62
US$0.81
+30.8%
22.5%US$1.21US$0.56US$0.4412
Jun ’24US$0.58
US$0.87
+48.3%
25.1%US$1.28US$0.57n/a13
May ’24n/a
US$0.88
0%
24.4%US$1.29US$0.57US$0.4213
Apr ’24US$0.78
US$0.88
+13.1%
23.6%US$1.28US$0.57US$0.4013
Mar ’24US$0.83
US$0.88
+6.1%
23.6%US$1.28US$0.57US$0.4813
Feb ’24US$0.90
US$0.90
+0.08%
25.6%US$1.47US$0.56US$0.4112
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts
US$0.45
Fair Value
22.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/08 13:53
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/15 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is covered by 33 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Kathryn DingBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Xiao XingBOCI Research Ltd.
Yanlin ZhaoBofA Global Research