Billerud AB (publ)

OTCPK:BLRD.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.2b

Billerud Valuation

Is BLRD.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BLRD.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BLRD.F ($9.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($11.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BLRD.F is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BLRD.F?

Key metric: As BLRD.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BLRD.F. This is calculated by dividing BLRD.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BLRD.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio40.7x
EarningsSEK 611.00m
Market CapSEK 24.85b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BLRD.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BLRD.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.7x
SON Sonoco Products
17.4x42.4%US$5.0b
SEE Sealed Air
13.2x9.9%US$5.2b
GPK Graphic Packaging Holding
12.3x6.4%US$8.8b
AMCR Amcor
19.7x11.7%US$15.1b
BLRD.F Billerud
40.7x34.6%US$24.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BLRD.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.7x) compared to the peer average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BLRD.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Packaging Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BLRD.F 40.7xIndustry Avg. 19.7xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BLRD.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.7x) compared to the North American Packaging industry average (19.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BLRD.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BLRD.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio40.7x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BLRD.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BLRD.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$9.25
US$11.50
+24.3%
11.9%US$13.65US$9.46n/a6
Nov ’25n/a
US$11.94
0%
11.8%US$14.09US$9.77n/a6
Oct ’25US$11.29
US$12.77
+13.1%
10.0%US$14.85US$11.09n/a6
Sep ’25n/a
US$11.67
0%
13.7%US$13.77US$8.64n/a7
Aug ’25n/a
US$11.10
0%
15.4%US$13.57US$8.52n/a7
Jul ’25n/a
US$11.15
0%
14.7%US$13.41US$8.72n/a6
Jun ’25n/a
US$10.41
0%
18.1%US$13.03US$8.10n/a6
May ’25n/a
US$9.47
0%
14.0%US$11.80US$7.89n/a6
Apr ’25n/a
US$9.85
0%
12.9%US$12.03US$8.40n/a6
Mar ’25US$8.50
US$9.70
+14.1%
14.5%US$11.98US$7.89n/a7
Feb ’25n/a
US$9.87
0%
14.4%US$12.11US$7.98n/a7
Jan ’25n/a
US$9.89
0%
13.9%US$12.04US$8.02n/a7
Dec ’24n/a
US$9.79
0%
13.9%US$11.90US$7.94n/a7
Nov ’24n/a
US$9.21
0%
14.0%US$11.31US$7.54n/a7
Oct ’24US$8.43
US$8.51
+0.9%
13.8%US$10.06US$6.74US$11.297
Sep ’24US$7.89
US$8.79
+11.4%
12.1%US$10.56US$7.20n/a7
Aug ’24US$8.30
US$8.79
+5.9%
12.1%US$10.56US$7.20n/a7
Jul ’24US$7.61
US$9.34
+22.7%
7.0%US$10.19US$8.43n/a7
Jun ’24US$7.74
US$10.58
+36.7%
10.5%US$12.18US$8.87n/a7
May ’24US$9.90
US$11.04
+11.5%
12.3%US$13.12US$8.84n/a7
Apr ’24US$9.49
US$12.27
+29.3%
6.0%US$13.00US$10.59n/a7
Mar ’24US$11.83
US$12.47
+5.4%
2.4%US$12.85US$11.90US$8.507
Feb ’24US$11.98
US$12.96
+8.2%
3.5%US$13.65US$12.50n/a6
Jan ’24n/a
US$14.18
0%
11.0%US$17.06US$12.46n/a5
Dec ’23n/a
US$15.36
0%
19.6%US$20.51US$12.40n/a5
Nov ’23US$13.75
US$15.07
+9.6%
17.2%US$19.63US$12.78n/a5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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