Analysts Are Updating Their Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE:VMC) Estimates After Its Third-Quarter Results

Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE:VMC), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$2.3b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Vulcan Materials surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.82 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Vulcan Materials' 21 analysts is for revenues of US$8.53b in 2026. This reflects a meaningful 8.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 15% to US$9.78. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.68b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.82 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Vulcan Materials

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$315, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Vulcan Materials analyst has a price target of US$370 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$198. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Vulcan Materials shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Vulcan Materials' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 10.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 15 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Vulcan Materials is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Vulcan Materials going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Vulcan Materials that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.