Ternium's (NYSE:TX) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) will increase its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 13th of May to $2.20. This takes the dividend yield to 7.6%, which shareholders will be pleased with.

See our latest analysis for Ternium

Ternium's Dividend Is Well Covered By Earnings

We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. Before making this announcement, the company's dividend was much higher than its earnings. This situation certainly isn't ideal, and could place significant strain on the balance sheet if it continues.

The next year is set to see EPS grow by 102.4%. Under the assumption that the dividend will continue along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 56% which would be quite comfortable going to take the dividend forward.

Dividend Volatility

The company has a long dividend track record, but it doesn't look great with cuts in the past. Since 2014, the annual payment back then was $0.65, compared to the most recent full-year payment of $3.30. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18% a year over that time. It is great to see strong growth in the dividend payments, but cuts are concerning as it may indicate the payout policy is too ambitious.

Dividend Growth Potential Is Shaky

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. Earnings per share has been sinking by 14% over the last five years. Dividend payments are likely to come under some pressure unless EPS can pull out of the nosedive it is in. It's not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months - we would just be a bit cautious until this becomes a long term trend.

We're Not Big Fans Of Ternium's Dividend

Overall, while the dividend being raised can be good, there are some concerns about its long term sustainability. The company's earnings aren't high enough to be making such big distributions, and it isn't backed up by strong growth or consistency either. We don't think that this is a great candidate to be an income stock.

Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. For example, we've identified 3 warning signs for Ternium (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.