Rio Tinto Group

NYSE:RIO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$178.6b

Rio Tinto Group Dividends and Buybacks

Dividend criteria checks 3/6

Rio Tinto Group is a dividend paying company with a current yield of 3.83% that is well covered by earnings.

Key information

3.8%

Dividend yield

n/a

Buyback Yield

Total Shareholder Yieldn/a
Future Dividend Yield4.6%
Dividend Growth8.0%
Next dividend pay daten/a
Ex dividend daten/a
Dividend per sharen/a
Payout ratio66%

Recent dividend and buyback updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 02

Rio Tinto: Strong Operations, But Priced For Perfection Amid Rising Execution Risk

Summary Production was broadly in line with or ahead of expectations, yet achieving full-year guidance requires sustained elevated run rates at Pilbara, concentrating execution risk in the remaining quarters. Rising diesel, FX, and input costs are pushing margins toward the high end of guidance, while sell-side estimates are starting to move lower on weaker volumes and higher operating expenses. Despite supportive commodity prices, the stock appears priced to perfection, even accounting for a higher EV/EBITDA. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 27

Rio Tinto Vs. Vale: Inventory Doesn't Lie

Summary Since my last analysis, new tariffs announced by President Trump have added additional – and large – uncertainties to mining stocks. I expect high tariffs to disrupt global trade flows, decrease demand for basic metals, and increase operational costs for both RIO and VALE. As a reflection of these macroscopic pressures, the latest data show that both companies are experiencing elevated inventory. The inventory build up is even more concerning in the case of VALE. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 14

Rio Tinto: Debt Before Dividend

Summary Rio Tinto is diversifying from iron ore to copper and lithium to mitigate risks and capitalize on electrification, but this requires significant capital and increased debt. Iron ore's diminishing returns and reliance on China pose risks, leading to expected dividend reductions to service debt and fund diversification. I will hold Rio Tinto stock long-term, but won't reinvest dividends now, anticipating further stock price decline and lower dividends amidst diversification efforts. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 30

Rio Tinto: Underappreciated Copper Growth

Summary Rio Tinto has a supportive copper growth ahead, excluding M&A. China's economic activity started in 2025 with solid momentum. This will provide solid results on the iron ore EBITDA. A solid balance sheet, supportive shareholders' remuneration, and upside on critical metals make Rio Tinto a buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 12

Rio Tinto Has A Nice Blend Of Commodities At A Reasonable Price

Summary Rio Tinto's diversified portfolio, including its recent lithium acquisition, aims to reduce reliance on iron ore amid fluctuating Chinese demand and market dynamics. Despite low valuation metrics, Rio Tinto boasts strong profitability with a 20.25% ROE and a 6.45% dividend yield, appealing to income investors. The $6.7B Arcadium Lithium acquisition positions Rio Tinto as a top lithium producer, leveraging low market prices for future growth. Risks include heavy dependence on iron ore and the Chinese market, which could impact operations if market conditions remain unstable. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 23

Rio Tinto: Financial Weakness To Continue In 2025

Summary Rio Tinto's 2024 performance was weak, with a 1% decline in sales revenue and an 8% drop in underlying EPS due to challenges with its chief commodity, iron ore. The financial outlook for 2025 isn't positive either, with projected declines in revenue and EPS, and continued weakness in iron ore prices and limited expected change to production. Dividends can drop again in 2025, though the forward yield still isn't too bad at 5.5%. Despite high market multiples and unlikely price gains, RIO's consistent dividends still encourage a Hold rating on the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 01

Rio Tinto: China's Economic Stimulus Is Failing To Save Iron And Copper

Summary Iron ore prices have fallen 22% in 2024 due to weaker demand from China, significantly impacting Rio Tinto's profit outlook. China's collapsing property market, driven by a massive bubble, poses a severe risk to Rio Tinto's iron ore sales and global metal prices. Despite efforts to diversify into other metals like lithium, Rio Tinto's profits are highly sensitive to declines in iron ore and copper prices. Due to China's economic crisis, I expect a significant and lasting decline in Rio Tinto's EBITDA, around 30-50%, making RIO a risky investment. China's recent stimulus efforts have likely slowed or delayed the impact of the property market crisis, but I expect commodity price pressures to return in early 2025. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 20

Rio Tinto: Depressed Environment, Still A Buy

Summary The acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, despite a high valuation, positions Rio Tinto as a top lithium producer, enhancing long-term growth and maintaining a stable dividend payout. Q3 2024 production results were aligned with guidance, except for the Iron Ore Company of Canada segment, which saw reduced output due to operational issues. Unchanged guidance and a depressed valuation make Rio Tinto a Buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 08

Update On Rio Tinto Before Earnings

Summary RIO shares are undervalued compared to competitors, offering a compelling buy opportunity, especially with potential price declines post earnings on Oct. 15. Despite a 10.8% share price drop in 2024, RIO remains a leading mining company with diverse capabilities and a strong market position. RIO's potential acquisition of a lithium producer at low prices could be highly accretive if lithium prices recover, enhancing its market position. The 6.55% dividend yield is attractive, though dividend safety is a concern. However, higher metal prices should boost earnings and support dividends. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Stability and Growth of Payments

Fetching dividends data

Stable Dividend: RIO's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: RIO's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Dividend Yield vs Market

Rio Tinto Group Dividend Yield vs Market
How does RIO dividend yield compare to the market?
SegmentDividend Yield
Company (RIO)3.8%
Market Bottom 25% (US)1.4%
Market Top 25% (US)4.2%
Industry Average (Metals and Mining)1.5%
Analyst forecast (RIO) (up to 3 years)4.6%

Notable Dividend: RIO's dividend (3.83%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.41%).

High Dividend: RIO's dividend (3.83%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.24%).

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (65.5%), RIO's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (145.4%), RIO's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/06 18:05
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/06 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Rio Tinto Group is covered by 52 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Amos FletcherBarclays
Peter WardBarclays