Rio Tinto Group

NYSE:RIO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$179.1b

Rio Tinto Group Past Earnings Performance

Past criteria checks 1/6

Rio Tinto Group's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -12.5%, while the Metals and Mining industry saw earnings declining at 4.1% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 0.5% per year. Rio Tinto Group's return on equity is 15.3%, and it has net margins of 17.3%.

Key information

-12.55%

Earnings growth rate

-12.63%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining Industry Growth26.40%
Revenue growth rate-0.53%
Return on equity15.29%
Net Margin17.29%
Next Earnings Update29 Jul 2026

Recent past performance updates

No updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 02

Rio Tinto: Strong Operations, But Priced For Perfection Amid Rising Execution Risk

Summary Production was broadly in line with or ahead of expectations, yet achieving full-year guidance requires sustained elevated run rates at Pilbara, concentrating execution risk in the remaining quarters. Rising diesel, FX, and input costs are pushing margins toward the high end of guidance, while sell-side estimates are starting to move lower on weaker volumes and higher operating expenses. Despite supportive commodity prices, the stock appears priced to perfection, even accounting for a higher EV/EBITDA. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 27

Rio Tinto Vs. Vale: Inventory Doesn't Lie

Summary Since my last analysis, new tariffs announced by President Trump have added additional – and large – uncertainties to mining stocks. I expect high tariffs to disrupt global trade flows, decrease demand for basic metals, and increase operational costs for both RIO and VALE. As a reflection of these macroscopic pressures, the latest data show that both companies are experiencing elevated inventory. The inventory build up is even more concerning in the case of VALE. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 14

Rio Tinto: Debt Before Dividend

Summary Rio Tinto is diversifying from iron ore to copper and lithium to mitigate risks and capitalize on electrification, but this requires significant capital and increased debt. Iron ore's diminishing returns and reliance on China pose risks, leading to expected dividend reductions to service debt and fund diversification. I will hold Rio Tinto stock long-term, but won't reinvest dividends now, anticipating further stock price decline and lower dividends amidst diversification efforts. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 30

Rio Tinto: Underappreciated Copper Growth

Summary Rio Tinto has a supportive copper growth ahead, excluding M&A. China's economic activity started in 2025 with solid momentum. This will provide solid results on the iron ore EBITDA. A solid balance sheet, supportive shareholders' remuneration, and upside on critical metals make Rio Tinto a buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 12

Rio Tinto Has A Nice Blend Of Commodities At A Reasonable Price

Summary Rio Tinto's diversified portfolio, including its recent lithium acquisition, aims to reduce reliance on iron ore amid fluctuating Chinese demand and market dynamics. Despite low valuation metrics, Rio Tinto boasts strong profitability with a 20.25% ROE and a 6.45% dividend yield, appealing to income investors. The $6.7B Arcadium Lithium acquisition positions Rio Tinto as a top lithium producer, leveraging low market prices for future growth. Risks include heavy dependence on iron ore and the Chinese market, which could impact operations if market conditions remain unstable. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 23

Rio Tinto: Financial Weakness To Continue In 2025

Summary Rio Tinto's 2024 performance was weak, with a 1% decline in sales revenue and an 8% drop in underlying EPS due to challenges with its chief commodity, iron ore. The financial outlook for 2025 isn't positive either, with projected declines in revenue and EPS, and continued weakness in iron ore prices and limited expected change to production. Dividends can drop again in 2025, though the forward yield still isn't too bad at 5.5%. Despite high market multiples and unlikely price gains, RIO's consistent dividends still encourage a Hold rating on the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 01

Rio Tinto: China's Economic Stimulus Is Failing To Save Iron And Copper

Summary Iron ore prices have fallen 22% in 2024 due to weaker demand from China, significantly impacting Rio Tinto's profit outlook. China's collapsing property market, driven by a massive bubble, poses a severe risk to Rio Tinto's iron ore sales and global metal prices. Despite efforts to diversify into other metals like lithium, Rio Tinto's profits are highly sensitive to declines in iron ore and copper prices. Due to China's economic crisis, I expect a significant and lasting decline in Rio Tinto's EBITDA, around 30-50%, making RIO a risky investment. China's recent stimulus efforts have likely slowed or delayed the impact of the property market crisis, but I expect commodity price pressures to return in early 2025. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 20

Rio Tinto: Depressed Environment, Still A Buy

Summary The acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, despite a high valuation, positions Rio Tinto as a top lithium producer, enhancing long-term growth and maintaining a stable dividend payout. Q3 2024 production results were aligned with guidance, except for the Iron Ore Company of Canada segment, which saw reduced output due to operational issues. Unchanged guidance and a depressed valuation make Rio Tinto a Buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 08

Update On Rio Tinto Before Earnings

Summary RIO shares are undervalued compared to competitors, offering a compelling buy opportunity, especially with potential price declines post earnings on Oct. 15. Despite a 10.8% share price drop in 2024, RIO remains a leading mining company with diverse capabilities and a strong market position. RIO's potential acquisition of a lithium producer at low prices could be highly accretive if lithium prices recover, enhancing its market position. The 6.55% dividend yield is attractive, though dividend safety is a concern. However, higher metal prices should boost earnings and support dividends. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Revenue & Expenses Breakdown

How Rio Tinto Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.

Earnings and Revenue History

NYSE:RIO Revenue, expenses and earnings (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsG+A ExpensesR&D Expenses
31 Dec 2557,6389,9669330
30 Sep 2555,68410,1199890
30 Jun 2553,72910,2721,0440
31 Mar 2553,69410,9121,1230
31 Dec 2453,65811,5521,2020
30 Sep 2453,91711,1511,2580
30 Jun 2454,17610,7491,3200
31 Mar 2454,10910,4041,4310
31 Dec 2354,04110,0581,5390
30 Sep 2353,2449,3121,6480
30 Jun 2352,4468,5661,7550
31 Mar 2354,00010,4791,5840
31 Dec 2255,55412,3921,4110
30 Sep 2257,87115,0791,3540
30 Jun 2260,18717,7241,3000
31 Mar 2261,84119,4091,2790
31 Dec 2163,49521,1151,2550
30 Sep 2160,91419,9301,1340
30 Jun 2158,33218,7661,0140
31 Mar 2151,47214,2689920
31 Dec 2044,6119,7699680
30 Sep 2043,2088,4839640
30 Jun 2041,8057,1969600
31 Mar 2042,4857,6039640
31 Dec 1943,1658,0109660
30 Sep 1942,24810,6991,1490
30 Jun 1941,33013,3881,3300
31 Mar 1940,92613,5131,3030
31 Dec 1840,52213,6381,2750
30 Sep 1840,57411,7381,4440
30 Jun 1840,6259,8375020
31 Mar 1840,3289,3004740
31 Dec 1740,0308,7621,0000
30 Sep 1738,8157,4864250
30 Jun 1737,6006,2094050
31 Mar 1735,6915,4134510
31 Dec 1633,7814,6174970
30 Sep 1633,0652,3295490
30 Jun 1632,349416000
31 Mar 1633,589-4125880
31 Dec 1534,829-8665760
30 Sep 1538,0681,0336130
30 Jun 1541,3072,9316500

Quality Earnings: RIO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: RIO's current net profit margins (17.3%) are lower than last year (21.5%).

Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: RIO's earnings have declined by 12.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: RIO's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: RIO had negative earnings growth (-13.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (86.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: RIO's Return on Equity (15.3%) is considered low.

Return on Assets

Return on Capital Employed

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 01:34
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Rio Tinto Group is covered by 52 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Amos FletcherBarclays
Peter WardBarclays