Does Greif’s (GEF) Potential $150 Million Buyback Signal Shifting Capital Allocation Priorities?

• On November 10, 2025, Greif announced that its Board of Directors will consider a share repurchase program to potentially buy back 2,500,000 common shares worth up to US$150 million.
• The buyback discussion follows recent earnings showing a very large year-over-year increase in net income despite lower sales, highlighting Greif’s focus on returning capital to shareholders amid mixed financial performance.
• Next, we'll consider how Greif’s potential share repurchase could shape its investment narrative and future capital allocation priorities.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Greif Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Greif shareholder today requires confidence in the company’s ability to balance restructuring-driven profitability and cash returns with the challenge of lower sales and sector headwinds. News of a potential US$150 million share buyback could influence short-term sentiment but is unlikely to materially change the most important catalyst, recovery in packaging demand, or offset ongoing risks related to revenue diversification and cyclical exposure. Among recent updates, Greif’s earnings report for the two and eleven months ended September 30, 2025 stands out, with net income surging despite declining sales. This sharp swing in profitability, fueled by portfolio actions and possibly one-off items, throws into relief the pivotal role that earnings quality and sustainability may play in evaluating how management’s capital allocation decisions could shape future value for investors. However, one key consideration investors should not overlook is that, in contrast to recent share buyback optimism, exposure to more cyclical and potentially lower-growth markets could mean...

Read the full narrative on Greif (it's free!)

Greif's outlook anticipates $4.0 billion in revenue and $327.0 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario reflects a 9.4% annual revenue decline and a $186.3 million increase in earnings from the current $140.7 million.

Uncover how Greif's forecasts yield a $73.80 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community contributed three fair value estimates for Greif, ranging from US$54.92 to over US$243.46 per share. This variety reinforces how shifts in end-market demand could meaningfully influence analysts and private investors alike, be sure to compare these viewpoints and factor in your own expectations.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Greif - why the stock might be worth 10% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Greif Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Greif research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Greif research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Greif's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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