Earnings Miss: Constellium SE Missed EPS By 46% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

As you might know, Constellium SE (NYSE:CSTM) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Results overall were not great, with earnings of €0.11 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit €1.7b and were slightly better than forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Constellium

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Constellium from six analysts is for revenues of €7.32b in 2024. If met, it would imply a modest 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 109% to €1.72. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €7.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.71 in 2024. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small increase to revenue estimates.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$25.16, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Constellium, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$27.04 and the most bearish at US$23.70 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Constellium's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.2% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Constellium's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$25.16, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Constellium going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Constellium that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.