Centerra Gold Inc.

NYSE:CGAU Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.2b

Centerra Gold Valuation

Is CGAU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CGAU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CGAU ($5.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($27.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CGAU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CGAU?

Key metric: As CGAU is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CGAU. This is calculated by dividing CGAU's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CGAU's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.8x
EarningsUS$104.12m
Market CapUS$1.23b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CGAU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CGAU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.5x
DRD DRDGOLD
10.4xn/aUS$765.9m
MUX McEwen Mining
4.2x-106.9%US$432.9m
BVN Compañía de Minas BuenaventuraA
8.4x2.9%US$3.0b
CMCL Caledonia Mining
19.1x64.8%US$179.8m
CGAU Centerra Gold
11.6x3.5%US$1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CGAU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the peer average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CGAU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.5xn/aUS$4.68m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
ZCRM.F Zincore Metals
0.5xn/aUS$852.33k
CGAU 11.8xIndustry Avg. 15.2xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CGAU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CGAU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CGAU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.8x
Fair PE Ratio14.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CGAU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CGAU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$5.73
US$8.58
+49.8%
12.4%US$9.84US$6.23n/a10
Dec ’25US$6.03
US$8.67
+43.8%
12.8%US$10.05US$6.43n/a9
Nov ’25US$6.52
US$9.22
+41.4%
8.0%US$10.05US$7.35n/a10
Oct ’25US$7.25
US$9.31
+28.4%
8.2%US$10.40US$7.52n/a10
Sep ’25US$7.08
US$8.80
+24.3%
10.2%US$9.74US$6.59n/a10
Aug ’25US$6.55
US$8.87
+35.3%
10.5%US$10.11US$6.59n/a10
Jul ’25US$6.65
US$8.69
+30.6%
10.9%US$10.11US$6.57n/a10
Jun ’25US$6.89
US$8.62
+25.1%
11.6%US$10.07US$6.34n/a10
May ’25US$6.13
US$8.23
+34.3%
11.4%US$10.06US$6.18n/a10
Apr ’25US$5.93
US$7.64
+28.9%
11.5%US$8.69US$5.59n/a10
Mar ’25US$5.19
US$7.66
+47.6%
12.1%US$8.72US$5.59n/a10
Feb ’25US$5.44
US$8.03
+47.7%
12.3%US$8.93US$5.65n/a9
Jan ’25US$5.96
US$7.96
+33.6%
11.6%US$8.82US$5.50US$5.699
Dec ’24US$6.18
US$7.80
+26.2%
13.3%US$8.82US$5.50US$6.039
Nov ’24US$5.58
US$7.71
+38.2%
11.3%US$8.65US$6.06US$6.528
Oct ’24US$4.90
US$8.16
+66.5%
11.3%US$9.26US$6.17US$7.258
Sep ’24US$5.89
US$7.96
+35.1%
12.4%US$9.40US$6.17US$7.089
Aug ’24US$5.95
US$7.91
+33.0%
13.1%US$9.40US$6.10US$6.559
Jul ’24US$6.00
US$7.85
+30.8%
14.2%US$9.30US$5.44US$6.659
Jun ’24US$6.24
US$7.54
+20.9%
15.2%US$9.20US$5.37US$6.899
May ’24US$6.67
US$8.08
+21.1%
14.0%US$9.71US$5.55US$6.139
Apr ’24US$6.47
US$7.17
+10.8%
16.7%US$9.18US$4.63US$5.939
Mar ’24US$6.54
US$7.21
+10.2%
16.5%US$9.18US$4.63US$5.199
Feb ’24US$6.78
US$6.76
-0.3%
15.9%US$8.56US$4.69US$5.449
Jan ’24US$5.18
US$6.78
+30.9%
25.5%US$11.21US$4.99US$5.9610

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/06 22:07
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Centerra Gold Inc. is covered by 26 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Raj RayBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Lawson WinderBofA Global Research