Centerra Gold Inc.

NYSE:CGAU Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.3b

Centerra Gold Valuation

Is CGAU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CGAU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CGAU ($6.03) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($4.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CGAU is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CGAU?

Key metric: As CGAU is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CGAU. This is calculated by dividing CGAU's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CGAU's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.1x
EarningsUS$104.12m
Market CapUS$1.27b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CGAU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CGAU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.5x
DRD DRDGOLD
11.4xn/aUS$839.1m
BVN Compañía de Minas BuenaventuraA
8.3x-1.6%US$3.1b
MUX McEwen Mining
4.3x-106.9%US$442.5m
CMCL Caledonia Mining
21.8x93.0%US$202.5m
CGAU Centerra Gold
12.1x-0.1%US$1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CGAU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the peer average (11.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CGAU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.6xn/aUS$6.03m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
ZCRM.F Zincore Metals
0.5xn/aUS$852.33k
CGAU 12.1xIndustry Avg. 19.1xNo. of Companies7PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CGAU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (19.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CGAU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CGAU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.1x
Fair PE Ratio13.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CGAU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CGAU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$5.99
US$8.89
+48.4%
10.6%US$10.05US$6.43n/a9
Nov ’25US$6.52
US$9.22
+41.4%
8.0%US$10.05US$7.35n/a10
Oct ’25US$7.25
US$9.31
+28.4%
8.2%US$10.40US$7.52n/a10
Sep ’25US$7.08
US$8.80
+24.3%
10.2%US$9.74US$6.59n/a10
Aug ’25US$6.55
US$8.87
+35.3%
10.5%US$10.11US$6.59n/a10
Jul ’25US$6.65
US$8.69
+30.6%
10.9%US$10.11US$6.57n/a10
Jun ’25US$6.89
US$8.62
+25.1%
11.6%US$10.07US$6.34n/a10
May ’25US$6.13
US$8.23
+34.3%
11.4%US$10.06US$6.18n/a10
Apr ’25US$5.93
US$7.64
+28.9%
11.5%US$8.69US$5.59n/a10
Mar ’25US$5.19
US$7.66
+47.6%
12.1%US$8.72US$5.59n/a10
Feb ’25US$5.44
US$8.03
+47.7%
12.3%US$8.93US$5.65n/a9
Jan ’25US$5.96
US$7.96
+33.6%
11.6%US$8.82US$5.50n/a9
Dec ’24US$6.18
US$7.80
+26.2%
13.3%US$8.82US$5.50n/a9
Nov ’24US$5.58
US$7.71
+38.2%
11.3%US$8.65US$6.06US$6.528
Oct ’24US$4.90
US$8.16
+66.5%
11.3%US$9.26US$6.17US$7.258
Sep ’24US$5.89
US$7.96
+35.1%
12.4%US$9.40US$6.17US$7.089
Aug ’24US$5.95
US$7.91
+33.0%
13.1%US$9.40US$6.10US$6.559
Jul ’24US$6.00
US$7.85
+30.8%
14.2%US$9.30US$5.44US$6.659
Jun ’24US$6.24
US$7.54
+20.9%
15.2%US$9.20US$5.37US$6.899
May ’24US$6.67
US$8.08
+21.1%
14.0%US$9.71US$5.55US$6.139
Apr ’24US$6.47
US$7.17
+10.8%
16.7%US$9.18US$4.63US$5.939
Mar ’24US$6.54
US$7.21
+10.2%
16.5%US$9.18US$4.63US$5.199
Feb ’24US$6.78
US$6.76
-0.3%
15.9%US$8.56US$4.69US$5.449
Jan ’24US$5.18
US$6.78
+30.9%
25.5%US$11.21US$4.99US$5.9610
Dec ’23US$5.52
US$6.84
+23.9%
24.8%US$11.21US$5.04US$6.1810
Nov ’23US$4.73
US$6.87
+45.2%
25.9%US$11.21US$5.08US$5.5810

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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