Arch Resources, Inc.

NYSE:ARCH Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.0b

Arch Resources Valuation

Is ARCH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARCH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARCH ($167.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($243.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARCH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARCH?

Key metric: As ARCH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ARCH. This is calculated by dividing ARCH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ARCH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.9x
EarningsUS$179.45m
Market CapUS$3.03b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARCH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ARCH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.8x
AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources
8.7x6.4%US$3.1b
HCC Warrior Met Coal
9.7x-3.8%US$3.6b
WS Worthington Steel
17.9x7.7%US$2.2b
TX Ternium
83x45.2%US$6.6b
ARCH Arch Resources
16.9x43.3%US$3.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARCH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the peer average (29.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARCH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.6xn/aUS$5.46m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
ZCRM.F Zincore Metals
0.5xn/aUS$852.33k
ARCH 16.9xIndustry Avg. 19.1xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARCH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (19.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARCH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARCH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.9x
Fair PE Ratio32.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARCH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARCH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$167.07
US$165.00
-1.2%
10.4%US$185.00US$140.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$144.00
US$167.50
+16.3%
13.2%US$200.00US$140.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$135.90
US$170.50
+25.5%
12.8%US$200.00US$140.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$136.43
US$174.67
+28.0%
12.0%US$200.00US$140.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$141.71
US$179.67
+26.8%
9.6%US$200.00US$155.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$168.65
US$182.17
+8.0%
6.7%US$200.00US$165.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$173.93
US$182.17
+4.7%
6.7%US$200.00US$165.00n/a6
May ’25US$156.86
US$182.17
+16.1%
6.7%US$200.00US$165.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$159.39
US$183.83
+15.3%
7.2%US$200.00US$160.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$169.00
US$188.83
+11.7%
10.3%US$223.00US$160.00n/a6
Feb ’25US$177.83
US$192.00
+8.0%
11.7%US$232.00US$160.00n/a6
Jan ’25US$165.94
US$181.00
+9.1%
6.9%US$200.00US$160.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$172.76
US$180.17
+4.3%
7.1%US$200.00US$160.00n/a6
Nov ’24US$153.04
US$177.67
+16.1%
6.1%US$191.00US$160.00US$144.006
Oct ’24US$170.66
US$179.50
+5.2%
6.6%US$197.00US$160.00US$135.906
Sep ’24US$137.81
US$168.33
+22.1%
10.4%US$195.00US$140.00US$136.436
Aug ’24US$130.02
US$168.33
+29.5%
10.4%US$195.00US$140.00US$141.716
Jul ’24US$112.76
US$168.33
+49.3%
10.4%US$195.00US$140.00US$168.656
Jun ’24US$105.20
US$182.17
+73.2%
7.5%US$200.00US$160.00US$173.936
May ’24US$119.69
US$178.60
+49.2%
6.8%US$198.00US$160.00US$156.865
Apr ’24US$131.46
US$193.80
+47.4%
5.4%US$204.00US$175.00US$159.395
Mar ’24US$162.76
US$198.80
+22.1%
2.3%US$204.00US$190.00US$169.005
Feb ’24US$151.35
US$184.40
+21.8%
12.7%US$207.00US$140.00US$177.835
Jan ’24US$142.79
US$187.20
+31.1%
14.2%US$221.00US$140.00US$165.945
Dec ’23US$149.88
US$187.20
+24.9%
14.2%US$221.00US$140.00US$172.765
Nov ’23US$153.84
US$187.20
+21.7%
14.2%US$221.00US$140.00US$153.045

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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