Why Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) Is Up 12.4% After Big Insider Buys And 2026 Shipment Guidance

• In December 2025, Alpha Metallurgical Resources issued 2026 guidance to ship 14.4–15.4 million metallurgical tons plus 0.7–1.1 million incidental thermal tons, while director Kenneth S. Courtis bought tens of thousands of shares in open-market transactions totaling about US$6.7 million.
• Courtis’s unusually large and ongoing insider purchases, which lifted his stake above 800,000 shares, highlight internal confidence even as Alpha addresses operational challenges and refines its Kingston Wildcat mine plans.
• We’ll now explore how this outsized insider buying against the backdrop of new 2026 volume guidance reshapes Alpha Metallurgical Resources’ investment narrative.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Investment Narrative Recap

To own Alpha Metallurgical Resources, you need to believe metallurgical coal remains an essential input for steelmakers and that Alpha can convert that demand into profitable, resilient volumes despite cyclicality. The new 2026 shipment guidance mostly reinforces the existing outlook, while the key near term swing factor remains how quickly earnings can recover from recent losses; the biggest current risk is that prolonged weak steel demand and met coal pricing keep profitability under pressure.

The 2026 guidance for 14.4 million to 15.4 million metallurgical tons plus 0.7 million to 1.1 million thermal tons matters here because it frames what Courtis is buying into: a business still planning solid volumes despite recent operational issues. Against that backdrop, his multi million dollar open market purchases, adding to more than 800,000 owned shares, give investors fresh information about how at least one board member views Alpha’s ability to work through a tough cycle.

Yet investors should also be aware of the risk that prolonged weak steel demand and depressed met coal pricing could...

Read the full narrative on Alpha Metallurgical Resources (it's free!)

Alpha Metallurgical Resources' narrative projects $2.9 billion revenue and $505.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $542.2 million earnings increase from -$37.2 million today.

Uncover how Alpha Metallurgical Resources' forecasts yield a $184.50 fair value, a 11% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Alpha’s fair value anywhere between US$70 and about US$465 per share, showing just how far apart investor views can be. When you set that spread against the risk that prolonged weak steel demand and low met coal prices could weigh on earnings, it becomes even more important to compare several perspectives before deciding how Alpha might fit in your portfolio.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Alpha Metallurgical Resources - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Alpha Metallurgical Resources Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Alpha Metallurgical Resources research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Alpha Metallurgical Resources research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Alpha Metallurgical Resources' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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