A Fresh Look at Amcor (NYSE:AMCR) Valuation Following New Open Innovation Sustainability Drive

Amcor (NYSE:AMCR) has kicked off its Lift-Off Winter 2025/26 Challenge, inviting start-ups from around the world to partner on sustainable packaging innovations. This initiative signals Amcor’s continued drive to advance circularity and environmental leadership.

See our latest analysis for Amcor.

Despite launching the Lift-Off Challenge and highlighting its commitment to innovation, Amcor’s momentum has been mixed. The share price saw a solid 8.5% gain over the past month; however, the one-year total shareholder return stands at -15%, reflecting persistent challenges for long-term investors even as new initiatives signal potential for future upside.

If Amcor’s focus on breakthrough packaging solutions has you rethinking your strategy, it could be a great moment to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares still trading at a double-digit discount to analyst price targets, is Amcor an overlooked value play in packaging? Or is the market simply factoring in muted prospects for growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.1% Undervalued

Compared to Amcor’s last close price of $8.52, the most popular narrative estimates a fair value of $10.41. This suggests meaningful upside if projections play out as expected. The stage is set for upside, but only if the company can deliver on ambitious post-acquisition goals while keeping a lid on existing headwinds.

The integration of Berry Global with Amcor is expected to yield $650 million in synergies by fiscal 2028 (with $260 million in fiscal 2026), primarily through cost reduction, procurement optimization, and operational efficiencies. These factors should support sustained EPS and margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s really driving this narrative’s valuation? The secret sauce lies in a daring mix of profit growth, a bold margin target, and a future earnings multiple that outpaces most industry peers. Unlock the numbers behind this expected jump. One forecast sets the whole trajectory.

Result: Fair Value of $10.41 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weak demand in key markets and high leverage remain real threats. These factors could hinder Amcor’s path to sustainable earnings growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Amcor narrative.

Another View: What Do Market Ratios Say?

Looking from another angle, Amcor trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.7x, which is well above its North American packaging peers at 19.3x and the fair ratio of 24.8x. Such a premium suggests the stock may be expensive relative to its true fundamentals. Could the market be overestimating future growth, or is there hidden upside others are missing?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Amcor Narrative

If this perspective does not resonate with you, or you want to dig into the numbers yourself, it's quick and easy to craft your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Amcor research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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