Haynes International (NasdaqGS:HAYN) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of HAYN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

HAYN ($41.83) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($102.81)

HAYN fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

HAYN Stock Overview

Haynes International, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes nickel and cobalt-based alloys in sheet, coil, and plate forms in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 59.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 19.74% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 2.1% is not well covered by earnings

Haynes International Competitors

SunCoke Energy

NYSE:SXC

US$567.9m

Ramaco Resources

NasdaqGS:METC

US$493.6m

TimkenSteel

NYSE:TMST

US$772.6m

Olympic Steel

NasdaqGS:ZEUS

US$342.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Haynes International
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$41.83
52 Week High	US$49.76
52 Week Low	US$29.00
Beta	1.4
1 Month Change	33.73%
3 Month Change	11.61%
1 Year Change	12.24%
3 Year Change	43.55%
5 Year Change	40.75%
Change since IPO	209.85%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 01

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Haynes International (NASDAQ:HAYN)

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...

Shareholder Returns

	HAYN	US Metals and Mining	US Market
7D	8.2%	-0.8%	1.0%
1Y	12.2%	-12.3%	-12.8%

Return vs Industry: HAYN exceeded the US Metals and Mining industry which returned -12.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: HAYN exceeded the US Market which returned -12.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is HAYN's price volatile compared to industry and market?
HAYN volatility
HAYN Average Weekly Movement	7.3%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	10.0%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.3%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: HAYN is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: HAYN's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1912	1,092	Michael Shor	https://www.haynesintl.com

Haynes International, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes nickel and cobalt-based alloys in sheet, coil, and plate forms in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers high-temperature resistant alloys (HTA) and corrosion-resistant alloys (CRA). Its HTA products are used by manufacturers of equipment, including jet engines for the aerospace market; gas turbine engines for power generation; and industrial heating equipment.

Haynes International Fundamentals Summary

How do Haynes International's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
HAYN fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$516.15m
Earnings (TTM)	US$30.98m
Revenue (TTM)	US$441.93m

16.7x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/S Ratio

Is HAYN overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
HAYN income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$441.93m
Cost of Revenue	US$350.82m
Gross Profit	US$91.11m
Other Expenses	US$60.13m
Earnings	US$30.98m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.51
Gross Margin	20.62%
Net Profit Margin	7.01%
Debt/Equity Ratio	13.1%

How did HAYN perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.1%

Current Dividend Yield

35%

Payout Ratio

Does HAYN pay a reliable dividends?

See HAYN dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy HAYN by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Haynes International dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Aug 31 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Sep 15 2022
Days until Ex dividend	24 days
Days until Dividend pay date	39 days

Does HAYN pay a reliable dividends?

See HAYN dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is HAYN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HAYN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for HAYN. This is calculated by dividing HAYN's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is HAYN's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$516.15m

HAYN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.8x
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HAYN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

HAYN PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for HAYN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	4.8x
SXC SunCoke Energy	6.8x	-17.5%	US$567.9m
METC Ramaco Resources	6.4x	-33.6%	US$493.6m
TMST TimkenSteel	3.5x	-35.3%	US$772.6m
ZEUS Olympic Steel	2.4x	-31.3%	US$342.0m
HAYN Haynes International	16.7x	19.7%	US$516.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HAYN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the peer average (4.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HAYN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HAYN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (8.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HAYN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HAYN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	16.7x
Fair PE Ratio	17.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HAYN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HAYN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HAYN ($41.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($102.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HAYN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Haynes International forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

19.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HAYN's forecast earnings growth (19.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: HAYN's earnings (19.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HAYN's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: HAYN's revenue (9.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HAYN's revenue (9.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HAYN's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.3%).

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Past Performance

How has Haynes International performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

34.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: HAYN has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: HAYN became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: HAYN has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 34.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: HAYN has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: HAYN has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Metals and Mining industry (65.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: HAYN's Return on Equity (8.8%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Haynes International's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: HAYN's short term assets ($437.7M) exceed its short term liabilities ($138.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: HAYN's short term assets ($437.7M) exceed its long term liabilities ($121.8M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: HAYN's net debt to equity ratio (10.5%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: HAYN had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.

Debt Coverage: HAYN's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: HAYN's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (24.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Haynes International current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

2.10%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: HAYN's dividend (2.1%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.52%).

High Dividend: HAYN's dividend (2.1%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.09%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: HAYN's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: HAYN's dividend payments have not increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (35.2%), HAYN's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: HAYN is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

9.7yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Michael Shor (62 yo)

4.25yrs

Tenure

US$2,491,682

Compensation

Mr. Michael L. Shor has been Chief Executive Officer and President at Haynes International, Inc. since September 01, 2018. Mr. Shor served as Chairman of the Board at Haynes International, Inc. since Febru...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Michael's total compensation ($USD2.49M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.70M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Michael's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: HAYN's management team is seasoned and experienced (9.7 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: HAYN's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/09/30