Century Aluminum (CENX) Sales Rise but Margins Tighten—Is Expansion Strategy Outpacing Profit Growth?

• Century Aluminum reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, showing US$632.2 million in sales, up from US$539.1 million the previous year, driven by increased Midwest premiums but with net income falling to US$14.9 million.
• Recent operational updates, including the Mount Holly Power Agreement extension and restart project progress, highlight the company’s focus on expanding U.S. production capacity despite ongoing profit margin pressures.
• We’ll examine how Century Aluminum’s strong revenue growth and expansion initiatives could reshape its investment narrative going forward.

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Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Century Aluminum today, you need conviction that rising US demand, bolstered by government trade protections and expansion at Mt. Holly, will continue to counter fluctuating profitability. The latest quarterly report shows US$632.2 million in revenue, reflecting momentum from high Midwest premiums, though short-term earnings pressure remains. Recent news does not materially alter the core catalyst: the company’s ability to quickly and efficiently ramp up domestic capacity while maintaining pricing power amid volatile input costs.

The extension of the Mt. Holly power agreement through 2031 is especially relevant now, supporting ongoing restart efforts that aim to lift US output by 10%. This development ties directly to Century’s largest catalyst: scaling up domestic production to capture favorable market conditions and incentive programs amid industry supply constraints.

However, investors should also weigh the risk if US trade policies change, especially if Section 232 tariffs are rolled back, domestic premiums could quickly compress and…

Read the full narrative on Century Aluminum (it's free!)

Century Aluminum's outlook anticipates $3.0 billion in revenue and $479.3 million in earnings by 2028. This forecast is based on a 7.6% annual revenue growth rate and an increase in earnings of about $368 million from the current $111.4 million level.

Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $30.67 fair value, a 7% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members have fair value estimates ranging from US$22.13 to US$68.98 per share based on three analyses. While some expect robust returns if US production ramps up as planned, others caution that execution risks could materially impact future earnings; compare these perspectives for a fuller understanding.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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