Waterdrop Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Waterdrop is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 14.9% and 9.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 14.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 15.2% in 3 years.
Key information
14.9%
Earnings growth rate
14.48%
EPS growth rate
| Insurance earnings growth | 2.0% |
| Revenue growth rate | 9.9% |
| Future return on equity | 15.20% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 27 Mar 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 26
WDH: Semi Annual Dividend And Profit Outlook Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target for Waterdrop to $2.95 from $2.95, reflecting updated assumptions that point to slightly higher revenue growth, a marginally stronger profit margin, and a modestly lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Waterdrop Inc.Narrative Update • Apr 08
WDH: Semi Annual Dividend Will Support Upside Despite Slower Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their 12 month price target for Waterdrop slightly to about $2.95 from roughly $2.95. This reflects revised expectations for slower revenue growth at around 11% and a modestly higher forward P/E near 9.2x, partly offset by a slightly stronger projected profit margin of about 18%.Narrative Update • Mar 25
WDH: Planned Cash Dividend And Lower Future P/E Will Support Upside
Analysts have slightly revised their price target for Waterdrop, now reflecting modestly higher assumptions for revenue growth of 23.86%, profit margin of 16.74%, and a future P/E of 8.82. Together, these figures inform a refreshed view of the stock's potential value in dollar terms.Narrative Update • Mar 10
WDH: Stable Assumptions And Lower Future P/E Will Support Upside
Narrative Update on Waterdrop The latest analyst price target for Waterdrop has been adjusted to $2.95 from $2.95, with analysts citing slightly updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E to support the revised view. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Modelled fair value remains effectively unchanged at $2.95 per share.Narrative Update • Feb 23
WDH: Share Repurchases Will Support Earnings Outlook And Future Upside
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target for Waterdrop, now reflecting slightly higher assumed revenue growth of 23.36%, a marginally improved profit margin of 16.72%, and a lower future P/E of 8.96x. Together, these changes point to a somewhat more constructive view on the company’s earnings potential.Seeking Alpha • Feb 18
Waterdrop: Profitable Growth Meets Deep Value In China's InsurTech
Summary Waterdrop Inc. combines rapid growth with sustainable profitability, posting 38.4% revenue and 60.1% net income growth in Q3 2025. WDH's business model shift to technology-driven insurance distribution, with AI integration, enhances margins and operational efficiency. Shares trade at an attractive 9x forward P/E, backed by a strong cash position and disciplined capital returns via buybacks and dividends. Regulatory risks and competition persist, but WDH's robust balance sheet and evolving tech platform underpin its value-growth thesis. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Feb 09
WDH: Share Buybacks And Margin Outlook Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on Waterdrop, citing slightly higher assumed revenue growth of 23.12%, a small uptick in profit margin expectations to 16.72%, and a marginally lower future P/E estimate of 9.08x, all discounted at a refined rate of 7.52%. What's in the News Waterdrop issued earnings guidance for 2025, stating it is confident in exceeding its full year revenue and profit guidance (Corporate Guidance).Narrative Update • Jan 25
WDH: Share Buybacks And Margin Outlook Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Waterdrop to US$2.95 from US$2.91, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and a modestly lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Waterdrop issued earnings guidance for 2025, stating it is confident in exceeding its full year revenue and profit guidance (company guidance).Narrative Update • Jan 11
WDH: Share Buybacks And Margin Outlook Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Waterdrop to align with updated expectations for revenue growth of 22.45%, a profit margin of 16.61%, and a future P/E of 9.21. This reflects a slightly different balance of growth and profitability assumptions behind their valuation in currency terms.Narrative Update • Dec 25
WDH: Margin Expansion And Buybacks Will Drive Further Share Price Upside
Analysts have increased their price target on Waterdrop to $2.00 from $1.80, citing expectations for stronger revenue growth and continued margin expansion, even as the recent share rally tempers near term upside. Analyst Commentary Despite a recent downgrade to Neutral by Goldman Sachs on valuation grounds, the new $2.00 price target underscores increased confidence in Waterdrop's ability to sustain margin expansion against a backdrop of muted top line growth since 2022.
Narrative Update • Dec 11
WDH: Margin Strength And Buybacks Will Support Further Upside
Analysts have nudged their price target for Waterdrop higher to $2.00 from $1.80, reflecting modestly stronger growth expectations and a richer valuation, even as they highlight muted revenue momentum and a narrowing scope for further margin expansion. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts acknowledge that the recent price target lift to $2.00 recognizes Waterdrop's improved profitability profile, even in the face of subdued top line trends.Analysis Article • Nov 25
Waterdrop Inc. (NYSE:WDH) Screens Well But There Might Be A Catch
Waterdrop Inc.'s ( NYSE:WDH ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.5x might make it look like a buy right now...Narrative Update • Sep 24
New AI Tools Like DeepSeek Will Improve Sales Efficiency And Conversion Rates
Upward revisions to both revenue growth forecasts and net profit margin have supported a higher consensus analyst price target for Waterdrop, which has increased from $1.98 to $2.21. What's in the News Board of Directors authorized a buyback plan.Analysis Article • Sep 23
Waterdrop (NYSE:WDH) Will Pay A Dividend Of CN¥0.024
Waterdrop Inc.'s ( NYSE:WDH ) investors are due to receive a payment of CN¥0.024 per share on 7th of November. This...Narrative Update • Sep 09
New AI Tools Like DeepSeek Will Improve Sales Efficiency And Conversion Rates
The significant drop in Waterdrop's future P/E ratio alongside a higher net profit margin indicates improved earnings prospects and operational efficiency, supporting the upward revision of the consensus analyst price target from $1.83 to $1.98. What's in the News The Board of Directors of Waterdrop Inc.Analysis Article • Sep 08
Waterdrop (NYSE:WDH) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of CN¥0.024
Waterdrop Inc. ( NYSE:WDH ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of CN¥0.024 per share on the 7th of November...Analysis Article • Jul 24
Waterdrop Inc.'s (NYSE:WDH) Shares Leap 26% Yet They're Still Not Telling The Full Story
Despite an already strong run, Waterdrop Inc. ( NYSE:WDH ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last...Analysis Article • May 18
Investors Still Aren't Entirely Convinced By Waterdrop Inc.'s (NYSE:WDH) Earnings Despite 25% Price Jump
Waterdrop Inc. ( NYSE:WDH ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a...Seeking Alpha • Mar 20
Waterdrop May Only Be Just Getting Started
Summary Waterdrop stock appears to have broken out after failing to overcome resistance for over a year, which by itself is reason to be bullish. The breakout followed in the wake of a strong Q4 FY2024 report, which showed there is much to be bullish about. WDH looks primed to move higher, but it is not impossible for it to get derailed, especially if U.S.-China relations turn frosty. Nothing is guaranteed, but there is reason to think the recent rally has only gotten started and WDH has what it takes to move higher. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Feb 13
AI Integration And New Partnerships Will Enhance Future Operational Efficiency
Targeted insurance segment expansion and AI integration are driving growth in premiums, operational efficiencies, and financial margins.Analysis Article • Oct 12
Waterdrop Inc.'s (NYSE:WDH) Shares Leap 26% Yet They're Still Not Telling The Full Story
Waterdrop Inc. ( NYSE:WDH ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a...Seeking Alpha • Sep 10
Waterdrop: Very Undervalued AI-Driven Marketplace For Insurance Products
Summary Waterdrop Inc. is significantly undervalued, with expected FCF growth driven by AI-driven customer experience, proprietary CRM, and technical connections with large insurance carriers. The company's medical crowdfunding model appears to be a key catalyst for future net sales and income growth. Risks include operating in China, potential failed mergers and acquisitions, and regulatory changes, but the stock repurchase program may boost demand and stock price. Analysts forecast Waterdrop's worth to be higher than its current market value, suggesting a strong buy opportunity at the current price mark. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 24
Investors Aren't Entirely Convinced By Waterdrop Inc.'s (NYSE:WDH) Earnings
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.2x Waterdrop Inc. ( NYSE:WDH ) may be sending bullish signals at the...Analysis Article • Jun 23
Waterdrop Inc. (NYSE:WDH) Not Lagging Industry On Growth Or Pricing
Waterdrop Inc.'s ( NYSE:WDH ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2.3x may not look like an appealing investment...Seeking Alpha • Dec 23
Waterdrop: Turnaround Story Supported By An Outsized Net Cash Balance
Summary The Waterdrop turnaround is taking shape. In addition to its P&L strength, the growing net cash position provides downside protection. There are regulatory risks here, but the cheap valuation makes the overall risk/reward very compelling. Integrated Chinese insurtech platform Waterdrop (WDH) continues to enjoy strong brand recognition through its medical crowdfunding and insurance marketplace platforms, delivering another strong beat-and-raise quarter in Q3. Beyond the P&L improvement, WDH’s growing cash position has largely been ignored by the market and now stands at ~RMB3.6bn (>RMB4bn, including restricted cash), providing ample valuation support. While the stock has rallied in the last month or so, the cash balance remains >50% of the market cap despite WDH remaining on track to generate cash through the coming years. Further traction in the multi-year pivot toward long-term policy sales will be a key catalyst – as of Q3, first-year premiums here have already grown in the high-single-digits % QoQ. As WDH continues to prove the viability of its strategic pivot and FCF generation potential, I see a clear path to the stock re-rating much higher. Data by YCharts Lots of Positives from the Beat-and-Raise Quarter As the QoQ growth in first-year premiums showed in Q3, sales are likely moving higher despite the on/off COVID lockdowns during the period. Of note, the balance of non-current contract assets was up again by >RMB20m (a similar pace to Q1 and Q2), pointing toward further momentum in the sales of long-term policies. I expect the FY22 disclosures next year to support this view. The key uncertainty heading into Q4 will be the impact of lockdown measures through late November, as well as the impact of the latest COVID wave after restrictions were lifted in China. Given the traction in recent quarters through the lockdowns, I suspect premium growth will continue to improve, reinforcing the case for a sustained top-line turnaround. Waterdrop Also impressive is that WDH’s revenue strength has come without sacrificing profitability. Q3 saw a net profit of RMB170m, which was down QoQ, but broadly in line with prior quarters’ results, excluding the impact of tax credits. A key reason for the well-controlled cost base has been WDH’s plan to focus on existing user conversion over more expensive external customer acquisition. With the success of this growth strategy clearly being reflected in the P&L, the upward revision to the FY22 guidance seems prudent. The extent of the revision points to some conservatism, though – given the YTD net profit is already at ~RMB480m, WDH should easily clear the FY22 net profit target of RMB500m, paving the way for another beat-and-raise quarter ahead. Long-Term Strategic Pivot on Track Amid the higher competitive intensity, WDH has protected margins by transitioning away from expensive customer acquisition through third-party channels. Instead, it is now focused on converting existing non-paying users to paying insurance customers. As seen in the Q3 results, this strategy has already driven significant opex savings, allowing for consecutive quarters of net profits for the first time in its history as a listed company. The profits have been translating into cash flow as well, driving a sizeable net cash position. Waterdrop In reaction to the tighter regulatory backdrop on short-term products, management has also prudently transitioned its product mix toward long-term insurance products. The regulatory focus on increasing insurance affordability has already resulted in a 35% commission cap on short-term insurance products, along with the implementation of a >50% claim ratio requirement for accident insurance. Given WDH’s outsized exposure to short-term medical product commissions, diversifying away from this revenue stream makes sense. Early signs have been positive, but given this is a 3–5-year goal, progress here will be worth monitoring, as well as any further tightening on industry regulation. Insulating Against Regulation As with all investments in China, regulatory developments are key. While the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has not signaled any new policy implementations for now, the government’s increasingly populist rhetoric is a concern. In recent weeks, for instance, the Beijing Medical Security Bureau announced the cancellation of the upper limit of outpatient reimbursement for employees in the region from 2023. Post-implementation, this means the reimbursement ratio for expenses over RMB20k will now be ~60% for current employees and ~80% for retirees.Seeking Alpha • Sep 09
Waterdrop GAAP EPS of $0.01, revenue of $104.72M beats by $12.92M
Waterdrop press release (NYSE:WDH): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.01. Revenue of $104.72M (-25.3% Y/Y) beats by $12.92M. As of June 30, 2022, the company had combined cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments of $490.9M, as compared with RMB2,787.1M as of December 31, 2021.Seeking Alpha • Aug 22
Waterdrop joins United Nations Global Compact
Waterdrop (NYSE:WDH) has announced that it has become a member of the United Nations Global Compact, the world's largest corporate sustainability initiative. "In the future, we will actively respond to relevant initiatives of UNGC, provide more valuable services through intensive efforts in insurance and healthcare, and promote the sustainable development of healthcare together with partners." said Shen Peng, Founder, Chairman and CEO.Seeking Alpha • Jun 22
Waterdrop Turns Profitability Corner But Needs To Reignite Revenue Growth
Waterdrop went public in May 2021, raising around $360 million in gross proceeds in a U.S. IPO. The firm operates online marketplaces for various types of insurances and medical crowdfunding in China. WDH has suffered from a major change in the regulatory environment in China, as authorities have sought to concentrate and rationalize the industry. Although it has made progress on profitability, its revenue has contracted. I'm on Hold for WDH until it can demonstrate revenue growth while retaining profitability.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 5,388 | 943 | N/A | 537 | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4,930 | 732 | N/A | 956 | 3 |
| 12/31/2026 | 4,580 | 601 | 430 | 533 | 1 |
| 12/31/2025 | 3,978 | 569 | 214 | 244 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 3,253 | 506 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 2,983 | 447 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 2,821 | 395 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 2,772 | 368 | 219 | 437 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 2,744 | 327 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 2,727 | 265 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,729 | 198 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 2,631 | 167 | 393 | 407 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 2,651 | 234 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 2,737 | 367 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 2,759 | 552 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 2,802 | 608 | 754 | 766 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 2,726 | 410 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 2,733 | -236 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 2,971 | -1,141 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 3,206 | -1,726 | -1,133 | -1,097 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 3,432 | -2,150 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 3,516 | -1,892 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 3,258 | -1,414 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 3,028 | -1,108 | -804 | -777 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 2,735 | -839 | -540 | -530 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 1,511 | -458 | -546 | -533 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 238 | -231 | N/A | -211 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: WDH's forecast earnings growth (14.9% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: WDH's earnings (14.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.7% per year).
High Growth Earnings: WDH's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: WDH's revenue (9.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: WDH's revenue (9.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: WDH's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.2%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/11 12:11 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/08 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Analyst Sources
Waterdrop Inc. is covered by 9 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Edwin Liu | CLSA |
| Muyang Zhao | Guotai Haitong/Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited |
| Cheng Ru Li | Guoyuan Securities (HK) Ltd |