Potential Upside For Unum Group (NYSE:UNM) Not Without Risk

Unum Group's (NYSE:UNM) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.8x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 19x and even P/E's above 35x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, Unum Group has been very sluggish. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

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Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Unum Group's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 13%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 106% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 13% each year as estimated by the ten analysts watching the company. With the market only predicted to deliver 10% per annum, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.

In light of this, it's peculiar that Unum Group's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It looks like most investors are not convinced at all that the company can achieve future growth expectations.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Unum Group currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is higher than the wider market. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. It appears many are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Unum Group that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Unum Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.