Progressive (PGR): Assessing Valuation Ahead of November Earnings and Investor Updates

Progressive, a major force in U.S. insurance, recently reported strong earnings growth for the first nine months of 2025. This has sparked investor interest as its next quarterly update and shareholder communications are set for early November.

See our latest analysis for Progressive.

Despite Progressive’s robust earnings growth this year, the share price has come under pressure, falling nearly 13% over the past month and trimming year-to-date gains. Some large investors have locked in profits and market sentiment has softened, but the company’s three- and five-year total shareholder returns of 69% and 148% still highlight substantial long-term value creation.

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With shares now trading below recent analyst targets despite rising profit, the question for investors is whether Progressive is trading at an attractive discount or if the market has already factored in all future upside.

Most Popular Narrative: 22% Undervalued

Progressive’s most widely followed valuation narrative places its fair value well above the latest close, highlighting a significant disconnect between market pricing and projected business fundamentals. The narrative bases its estimate on longer-term revenue and earnings forecasts that diverge from recent share price trends.

Persistent growth in U.S. vehicle ownership, population, and rising vehicle complexity expand the addressable market and increase future demand for auto insurance. This should underpin sustained top-line revenue growth for Progressive.

Read the complete narrative.

The price gap is not just a fluke. See which bold projections on earnings and margins give this narrative its punch. Wondering what aggressive growth forecasts are hidden inside? The full story lays out the future financial drivers behind that eye-catching valuation number.

Result: Fair Value of $272.74 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising industry competition and higher costs for auto claims could put pressure on Progressive’s profit margins and may slow its long-term growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Progressive narrative.

Build Your Own Progressive Narrative

If you want to dig deeper or chart your own perspective, the data is open for you to interpret and shape your outlook in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Progressive research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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