Mercury General Corporation

NYSE:MCY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.5b

Mercury General Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Mercury General's earnings are forecast to decline at 36.6% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 2.5% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 36.6% per annum.

Key information

-36.6%

Earnings growth rate

-36.60%

EPS growth rate

Insurance earnings growth2.0%
Revenue growth rate2.5%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated06 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 09

Mercury General: From Wildfire Panic To Underwriting Recovery

Summary Mercury General has rebounded strongly after wildfire-driven turmoil, demonstrating resilience and improved underwriting discipline. MCY posted $203.9 million in pre-tax underwriting income in 2025, matching 2024 despite higher catastrophe losses, signaling portfolio remediation success. Recent underwriting gains and portfolio adjustments underpin a bullish outlook, with stability achieved even amid unpredictable catastrophe events. The dividend remains unchanged, reflecting a cautious but disciplined capital allocation approach as MCY rebuilds its financial strength. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 26

MCY: Stable Profitability And P/E Multiple Will Support Future Repricing

Analysts kept their price target for Mercury General steady at $110.00. This reflects broadly unchanged assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • Apr 11

MCY: Steady Profit Outlook And Discounted P/E Will Drive Future Repricing

Analysts have kept their $110.00 price target on Mercury General unchanged, reflecting steady views on fair value as they continue to see the current discount rate, revenue growth outlook, profit margin assumptions, and future P/E expectations as consistent with prior estimates. Valuation Changes Fair Value: The model fair value remains at $110.00, indicating no change in the assessed share valuation level.
Narrative Update • Mar 28

MCY: Stable Assumptions And Undervalued P/E Will Support Future Repricing

Analysts have kept their price target for Mercury General steady at $110.00, reflecting unchanged assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Model fair value stays at $110.00, indicating no change in the estimated intrinsic price per share.
Narrative Update • Mar 13

MCY: Steady Assumptions And Undervalued P/E Will Support Bullish Repricing

Analysts have kept their $110.00 price target for Mercury General unchanged, reflecting largely consistent assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E, with only minimal refinements to the model. Valuation Changes Fair Value: The model fair value remains at $110.00, with no change from the prior estimate.
Narrative Update • Feb 27

MCY: Higher Fair Value And P/E Assumptions Will Support Bullish Repricing

Analysts have lifted their price target for Mercury General to $110 from $100, reflecting updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and an expected future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair Value: updated to $110 from $100, indicating a modest uplift in the assessed share value.
Analysis Article • Nov 08

Mercury General (NYSE:MCY) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.3175

Mercury General Corporation's ( NYSE:MCY ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.3175 per share on 24th of...
Narrative Update • Sep 24

Core Business Strength May Support Future Earnings Despite Wildfire Losses And Rising Reinsurance Costs

Mercury General's fair value estimate was raised primarily due to a higher future P/E multiple despite steady revenue growth projections, driving the consensus analyst price target up from $90 to $100. What's in the News Mercury Insurance released its annual list of the most affordable EVs to insure, aiming to guide budget-conscious consumers and highlight insurance-saving vehicle models.
Analysis Article • Aug 27

Mercury General (NYSE:MCY) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.3175

The board of Mercury General Corporation ( NYSE:MCY ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 25th of...
Analysis Article • Aug 02

Mercury General (NYSE:MCY) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.3175

The board of Mercury General Corporation ( NYSE:MCY ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 25th of...
Analysis Article • Jul 23

Here's Why Mercury General (NYSE:MCY) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors

The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...
Analysis Article • Jun 11

Mercury General (NYSE:MCY) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.3175

Mercury General Corporation's ( NYSE:MCY ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.3175 per share on 26th of June...
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New Narrative • Feb 16

Core Business Strength May Support Future Earnings Despite Wildfire Losses And Rising Reinsurance Costs

Strength in core business operations, excluding catastrophe losses, suggests improved future earnings stability and net margins through personal auto and homeowners lines.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 16

California Wildfires, Mercury General's Opportunity Amid Crisis (Rating Upgrade)

Summary The Los Angeles wildfires, while tragic, may present an opportunity for Mercury General due to potential market exits by other insurers and possible price increases. Mercury General's exposure to auto insurance, along with its reinsurance coverage, suggests it can absorb the wildfire losses, estimated at $150 million pre-tax. Despite potential risks like increased reinsurance costs and regulatory changes, Mercury General is positioned for growth and higher premiums post-wildfires. I initiated a position in Mercury General, expecting a stock rebound to $56-$60, driven by positive FY 2024 results and subsiding wildfire fears. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 31

Mercury General: Turning Lead Into Gold

Summary Mercury General faced operational challenges and high loss ratios in 2022, compounded by a dividend reduction that resulted in the loss of its "dividend aristocrat" status. In response to these challenges, Mercury launched remediation efforts in 2023 focused on improving underwriting margins, especially in California, where adverse conditions significantly impacted profitability. By mid-2024, Mercury's combined ratio improved, achieving positive underwriting income and a combined ratio of 98.9% by Q2, reflecting the success of rate adjustments and underwriting improvements. Third-quarter results were particularly strong, leading to a year-to-date underwriting income of $88.7 million, reinforcing investor optimism and supporting a substantial stock price increase since early 2024. Mercury is on track for continued improvement, with anticipated FY 2024 combined ratios between 96.5% and 97.8%, driven by effective remediation and investment income growth, although it still trades at a premium relative to steadier competitors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 20

Mercury General: Very Cheap, And Expert Of Maximizing After-Tax Yield

Summary Mercury General Corporation is well-positioned for growth with significant cash reserves, enabling investment in advertising and agent network expansion to boost net sales. Recent rate increases approved by the Department of Insurance and impressive EPS forecasts for 2025 make MCY an attractive buy. The company's strong investment track record, focus on maximizing after-tax yield, and experienced leadership further support its potential for stable returns. Despite some risks, including market concentration in California and inflationary pressures, MCY's proven business model and undervaluation present a compelling investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:MCY - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20276,388443N/AN/A1
12/31/20266,066499N/AN/A1
3/31/20266,1368401,4191,482N/A
12/31/20255,9905411,0291,087N/A
9/30/20255,8004409911,048N/A
6/30/20255,745390818869N/A
3/31/20255,581286727776N/A
12/31/20245,4614689911,037N/A
9/30/20245,4895589701,014N/A
6/30/20245,024319779818N/A
3/31/20244,797215589627N/A
12/31/20234,63096416453N/A
9/30/20234,407-102258295N/A
6/30/20234,242-192226263N/A
3/31/20233,944-361228264N/A
12/31/20223,643-513317353N/A
9/30/20223,541-475321358N/A
6/30/20223,573-376339379N/A
3/31/20223,806-56392434N/A
12/31/20213,993248460502N/A
9/30/20214,016384551590N/A
6/30/20214,082502625663N/A
3/31/20214,069621645683N/A
12/31/20203,785375566606N/A
9/30/20203,701240511549N/A
6/30/20203,689190475514N/A
3/31/20203,66345400442N/A
12/31/20193,973320N/A520N/A
9/30/20193,801207N/A472N/A
6/30/20193,709196N/A465N/A
3/31/20193,615173N/A480N/A
12/31/20183,380-6N/A383N/A
9/30/20183,42196N/A390N/A
6/30/20183,38184N/A351N/A
3/31/20183,34875N/A346N/A
12/31/20173,413145N/A341N/A
9/30/20173,29399N/A354N/A
6/30/20173,24679N/A361N/A
3/31/20173,25177N/A316N/A
12/31/20163,22873N/A292N/A
9/30/20163,276123N/A255N/A
6/30/20163,221111N/A223N/A
3/31/20163,08972N/A229N/A
12/31/20153,00974N/A190N/A
9/30/20152,94530N/A196N/A
6/30/20152,91346N/A191N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MCY's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-36.6% per year).

Earnings vs Market: MCY's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-36.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MCY's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MCY's revenue (2.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MCY's revenue (2.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if MCY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/11 09:13
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/11 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Mercury General Corporation is covered by 7 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Alison JacobowitzBofA Global Research
Christopher CampbellKeefe, Bruyette, & Woods
Raymond IardellaMacquarie Research