Hagerty (HGTY): Valuation Perspective Following Strong Debut at Zoute Concours Auction and Global Expansion Plans

Hagerty (NYSE:HGTY) is drawing attention after its Broad Arrow Auctions business completed a successful debut at the Zoute Concours Auction in Belgium, with 445 registered bidders and over €26 million in sales. The company is now planning additional international auctions, which highlights ongoing growth in its marketplace division.

See our latest analysis for Hagerty.

In the wake of Broad Arrow’s record-setting Belgium auction and upcoming international events, momentum seems to be building for Hagerty. The stock’s recent 90-day share price return of 13.2% and three-year total shareholder return of 31.2% suggest a blend of renewed investor interest and confidence in growth, although there has been some volatility in shorter-term returns.

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That leaves investors weighing whether recent momentum and solid fundamentals mean Hagerty is undervalued at its current price, or if the market has already priced in the company’s promising growth story from this point forward.

Most Popular Narrative: 13% Undervalued

Hagerty’s latest fair value estimate stands at $13.17 per share, noticeably above its last close price of $11.44. This suggests that the most influential narrative sees substantial scope for upside, driven by recent business expansion and key partnerships.

The ramping State Farm partnership is expected to significantly accelerate new business growth, providing access to over 500,000 current program vehicles and thousands of motivated agents. This materially expands Hagerty's customer acquisition funnel and recurring commission revenues at attractive margins over the next several years.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the earnings fuel behind this bullish valuation? The narrative hinges on ambitious profit leaps and margin gains, betting on a dramatic financial transformation and sector-defying multiples. Curious about the numbers that fuel such optimism? Unlock the full story and see what’s powering this high-octane price target.

Result: Fair Value of $13.17 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower than expected premium growth and greater exposure to demographic shifts could challenge Hagerty’s path to sustained earnings and revenue expansion.

Find out about the key risks to this Hagerty narrative.

Another View: Ratio Risk Looms

While our earlier fair value estimate points to upside, Hagerty’s price-to-earnings ratio sits at 61.5x. This is much higher than the US insurance industry average of 14.2x and also exceeds its own fair ratio of 57x. This premium suggests investors are paying up for future growth. Could this optimism become overreach if results disappoint?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Hagerty Narrative

If the current analysis does not align with your perspective or you are eager to dig into the data yourself, you can craft a personal narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Hagerty research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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