If You Had Bought National Security Group (NASDAQ:NSEC) Shares A Year Ago You'd Have Made 26%

By
Simply Wall St
Published
June 02, 2020
NasdaqGM:NSEC

The simplest way to invest in stocks is to buy exchange traded funds. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). To wit, the The National Security Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSEC) share price is 26% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 9.3% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! However, the longer term returns haven't been so impressive, with the stock up just 4.3% in the last three years.

See our latest analysis for National Security Group

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year, National Security Group actually saw its earnings per share drop 72%.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.

We doubt the modest 1.6% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. National Security Group's revenue actually dropped 3.6% over last year. So using a snapshot of key business metrics doesn't give us a good picture of why the market is bidding up the stock.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NasdaqGM:NSEC Income Statement June 2nd 2020
NasdaqGM:NSEC Income Statement June 2nd 2020

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free interactive report on National Security Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, National Security Group's TSR for the last year was 28%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that National Security Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 28% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 1.7%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand National Security Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for National Security Group (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

National Security Group is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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