Cincinnati Financial Corporation's (NASDAQ:CINF) Stock Is Going Strong: Is the Market Following Fundamentals?

Cincinnati Financial's (NASDAQ:CINF) stock is up by a considerable 14% over the past three months. Given the company's impressive performance, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely as a company's financial health over the long-term usually dictates market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Cincinnati Financial's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

View our latest analysis for Cincinnati Financial

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cincinnati Financial is:

22% = US$3.1b ÷ US$14b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.22.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Cincinnati Financial's Earnings Growth And 22% ROE

To begin with, Cincinnati Financial seems to have a respectable ROE. Especially when compared to the industry average of 14% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. This certainly adds some context to Cincinnati Financial's decent 8.9% net income growth seen over the past five years.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Cincinnati Financial's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 13% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is CINF fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Cincinnati Financial Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Cincinnati Financial's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 20% (implying that it retains 80% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.

Additionally, Cincinnati Financial has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 44% over the next three years. Consequently, the higher expected payout ratio explains the decline in the company's expected ROE (to 8.3%) over the same period.

Conclusion

In total, we are pretty happy with Cincinnati Financial's performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a respectable growth in its earnings. That being so, according to the latest industry analyst forecasts, the company's earnings are expected to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.