We Think Coty (NYSE:COTY) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Coty Inc. (NYSE:COTY) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Coty

How Much Debt Does Coty Carry?

As you can see below, Coty had US$4.14b of debt at September 2023, down from US$4.35b a year prior. However, it does have US$280.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$3.86b.

A Look At Coty's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Coty had liabilities of US$2.83b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$5.64b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$280.0m as well as receivables valued at US$613.3m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$7.57b.

This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of US$10.3b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

While Coty's debt to EBITDA ratio (3.8) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.4, suggesting high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. On the other hand, Coty grew its EBIT by 26% in the last year. If it can maintain that kind of improvement, its debt load will begin to melt away like glaciers in a warming world. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Coty can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Coty actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

Our View

Coty's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real positive on this analysis, as was its EBIT growth rate. But truth be told its interest cover had us nibbling our nails. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Coty is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 2 warning signs with Coty (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.