Is Bearish Analyst Sentiment Shifting the Investment Case for Coty (COTY)?

• Wall Street expected Coty to report flat earnings with lower revenues for the quarter ended September 2025, amid downward revisions to earnings estimates and persistent analyst caution.
• Analysts highlighted Coty's ongoing struggles to exceed EPS expectations over the past year, reflecting widespread concern about its ability to achieve improved operational results.
• Given the recent wave of downward EPS revisions, we'll examine how this bearish analyst sentiment could impact Coty's longer-term investment narrative.

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Coty Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Coty shareholder right now, you need faith that recent restructuring, brand innovation, and market expansion efforts will eventually outweigh near-term earnings pressure and weak revenue momentum. The news of downward EPS revisions and ongoing earnings misses has heightened concerns around Coty’s short-term ability to stabilize margins, but it does not significantly alter the main catalysts of inventory realignment or the material risk of persistent top-line weakness from continued inventory destocking. Among Coty’s recent announcements, the completion of a US$900 million senior notes offering directly relates to the current news cycle. By refinancing near-term debt maturities, Coty looks to shore up its financial position, which could prove essential if margin recovery or revenue growth take longer to materialize. However, investors should be mindful that ongoing U.S. inventory destocking could still delay any sustained rebound...

Read the full narrative on Coty (it's free!)

Coty's outlook anticipates $6.1 billion in revenue and $302.1 million in earnings by 2028. This projection is based on a yearly revenue growth rate of 1.3% and a $683.2 million increase in earnings from the current level of -$381.1 million.

Uncover how Coty's forecasts yield a $5.04 fair value, a 29% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value estimates for Coty from the Simply Wall St Community range widely, from US$3.69 to US$10.89, with five individual perspectives included. Against this diversity, persistent inventory challenges may remain front of mind for many market participants with implications for both value and timing of a turnaround.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Coty - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Coty Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Coty research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Coty research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Coty's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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