Investor Optimism Abounds McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK) But Growth Is Lacking

It's not a stretch to say that McKesson Corporation's (NYSE:MCK) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.5x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, McKesson has been doing quite well of late. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to deteriorate like the rest, which has kept the P/E from rising. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

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Keen to find out how analysts think McKesson's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, McKesson would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 82%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 99% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 6.4% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 12% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it interesting that McKesson is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that McKesson currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for McKesson you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of McKesson's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.