US$111: That's What Analysts Think CONMED Corporation (NYSE:CNMD) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

It's been a mediocre week for CONMED Corporation (NYSE:CNMD) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$80.91 in the week since its latest annual results. Revenues of US$1.2b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$2.04, missing estimates by 2.6%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for CONMED

Following the latest results, CONMED's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.35b in 2024. This would be a meaningful 8.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 64% to US$3.43. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.36b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.54 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The average price target fell 9.9% to US$111, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CONMED at US$132 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$98.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that CONMED's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.4% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 8.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that CONMED is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for CONMED. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on CONMED. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for CONMED going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for CONMED that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.