Centene (CNC): Assessing Valuation After Quarterly Net Loss and Downward Revised Guidance

Centene (CNC) just released third-quarter results showing robust revenue growth, but it also posted a significant net loss and revised its 2025 earnings guidance downward. This shift in outlook is drawing new scrutiny from investors.

See our latest analysis for Centene.

Centene’s hefty quarterly net loss and cut to 2025 guidance have weighed heavily on investor sentiment, driving recent share price volatility. While the stock shot up 28.7% over the past three months, its year-to-date share price return remains deeply negative and the one-year total shareholder return has tumbled 45.3%. This makes momentum feel more uncertain than in the past. Financial stress and margin pressure are re-shaping how the market values Centene’s future prospects, even as revenue growth remains a bright spot.

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After a year marked by heavy losses and downwardly revised guidance, is Centene now trading at an attractive discount? Or has the market already accounted for the company’s future challenges and prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 7.8% Undervalued

Centene’s current share price trades just below what the most widely followed narrative calculates as fair value. This suggests room for moderate upside if the narrative’s assumptions play out. The valuation rests on forecasts about margin improvements, earnings stability, and sector dynamics that investors may want to explore further before forming their own view.

Recent updates on Medicaid have been better than anticipated, supporting a return to ACA profitability and incremental margin improvements. These are viewed as key contributors to future EPS growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Why are analysts betting on better margins? One key component of this calculation is a bold expectation that crucial profit levers could accomplish a recovery move not seen in years. Want to know which future figures shape this price call? Dive in and see what powers the narrative behind Centene’s valuation swing.

Result: Fair Value of $36 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing healthcare reforms or higher medical costs could easily derail the recovery story and put pressure on Centene’s future margins and earnings outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Centene narrative.

Build Your Own Centene Narrative

If this view does not match your take or you value your own analysis, you can explore the data firsthand and build a personal narrative in just a few minutes, so why not Do it your way

A great starting point for your Centene research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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